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icon for トランプ氏は誰かを恩赦しますか?

トランプ氏は誰かを恩赦しますか?

icon for トランプ氏は誰かを恩赦しますか?

トランプ氏は誰かを恩赦しますか?

新規
2026/09/30
Polymarket

$2,000 Vol.

Polymarket

9月30日

$631 Vol.

52%

12月31日

$1,368 Vol.

83%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump has exercised his clemency authority extensively since taking office in January 2025, issuing over 1,700 pardons and commutations by September 2026. This includes a large initial group tied to January 6 cases, followed by additional grants benefiting political allies, donors, and individuals connected to high-profile advocates. Recent actions on September 3 and 8 granted clemency to 30 people, covering drug offenses, fraud, firearms violations, and other matters, with announcements handled through the White House pardon czar rather than standard Department of Justice channels. These patterns reflect a departure from prior administrations' guidelines, driven by direct White House priorities and external advocacy networks. No major scheduled events constrain further grants in the near term, though trader assessments of future activity incorporate the pace of recent releases and any emerging lists under review.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$2,000
終了日
2027/01/01
マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 5:53 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump has exercised his clemency authority extensively since taking office in January 2025, issuing over 1,700 pardons and commutations by September 2026. This includes a large initial group tied to January 6 cases, followed by additional grants benefiting political allies, donors, and individuals connected to high-profile advocates. Recent actions on September 3 and 8 granted clemency to 30 people, covering drug offenses, fraud, firearms violations, and other matters, with announcements handled through the White House pardon czar rather than standard Department of Justice channels. These patterns reflect a departure from prior administrations' guidelines, driven by direct White House priorities and external advocacy networks. No major scheduled events constrain further grants in the near term, though trader assessments of future activity incorporate the pace of recent releases and any emerging lists under review.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$2,000
終了日
2027/01/01
マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 5:53 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x65070BE91...

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「トランプ氏は誰かを恩赦しますか?」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「12月31日」で83%、次いで「9月30日」が52%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、83¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に83%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「トランプ氏は誰かを恩赦しますか?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です(Sep 14, 2026開始)。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「トランプ氏は誰かを恩赦しますか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「トランプ氏は誰かを恩赦しますか?」の現在のフロントランナーは「12月31日」で83%であり、市場がこの結果に83%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「9月30日」で52%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「トランプ氏は誰かを恩赦しますか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。