Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs place Miami’s expected high temperature for May 17 near the climatological normal of 86–87 °F, reflecting a typical subtropical spring pattern of moderate easterly flow, abundant boundary-layer moisture, and scattered afternoon convection that caps extreme heating. Recent observations show sea-surface temperatures around 80 °F and a stable Bermuda high, which together favor afternoon sea-breeze development and limit insolation enough to keep most guidance clustered between 86 °F and 89 °F. Minor differences among models center on the timing and coverage of thunderstorms, which could shave a degree or two from peak readings if they develop earlier than forecast. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to the 86–89 °F brackets, consistent with the narrow spread of official forecasts issued within the last 24 hours.