Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in forecast models for New York City Central Park's lowest temperature on May 18, with evenly distributed implied probabilities across 54–69°F bins stemming from divergent GFS and ECMWF runs. The latest GFS ensemble hints at a cool shot with lows near 54°F amid a potential shortwave trough enhancing radiative cooling under clear skies, while ECMWF solutions favor milder conditions around 60–65°F due to persistent ridging and higher cloud cover. National Weather Service climatological normals peg mid-May lows at 54°F, but model spread highlights sensitivity to upper-air patterns and timing of any frontal passage. New 12Z runs from NOAA's Global Forecast System and European Centre ensembles expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen the outlook as resolution nears.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트5월 18일 뉴욕에서 가장 기온이 낮으신가요?
5월 18일 뉴욕에서 가장 기온이 낮으신가요?
64-65°F 27%
62-63°F 21%
66-67°F 19%
68-69°F 19%
신규
신규
2026.05.18
53°F 이하
4%
54-55°F
5%
56-57°F
8%
58-59°F
16%
60-61°F
12%
62-63°F
21%
64-65°F
27%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
19%
70-71°F
6%
72°F 이상
4%
64-65°F 27%
62-63°F 21%
66-67°F 19%
68-69°F 19%
신규
신규
2026.05.18
53°F 이하
$1,242 거래량
4%
54-55°F
$0 거래량
5%
56-57°F
$23 거래량
8%
58-59°F
$17 거래량
16%
60-61°F
$12 거래량
12%
62-63°F
$0 거래량
21%
64-65°F
$0 거래량
27%
66-67°F
$0 거래량
19%
68-69°F
$0 거래량
19%
70-71°F
$0 거래량
6%
72°F 이상
$20 거래량
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in forecast models for New York City Central Park's lowest temperature on May 18, with evenly distributed implied probabilities across 54–69°F bins stemming from divergent GFS and ECMWF runs. The latest GFS ensemble hints at a cool shot with lows near 54°F amid a potential shortwave trough enhancing radiative cooling under clear skies, while ECMWF solutions favor milder conditions around 60–65°F due to persistent ridging and higher cloud cover. National Weather Service climatological normals peg mid-May lows at 54°F, but model spread highlights sensitivity to upper-air patterns and timing of any frontal passage. New 12Z runs from NOAA's Global Forecast System and European Centre ensembles expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen the outlook as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
거래량
$1,315종료일
2026.05.18마켓 개설일
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in forecast models for New York City Central Park's lowest temperature on May 18, with evenly distributed implied probabilities across 54–69°F bins stemming from divergent GFS and ECMWF runs. The latest GFS ensemble hints at a cool shot with lows near 54°F amid a potential shortwave trough enhancing radiative cooling under clear skies, while ECMWF solutions favor milder conditions around 60–65°F due to persistent ridging and higher cloud cover. National Weather Service climatological normals peg mid-May lows at 54°F, but model spread highlights sensitivity to upper-air patterns and timing of any frontal passage. New 12Z runs from NOAA's Global Forecast System and European Centre ensembles expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen the outlook as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$1,315종료일
2026.05.18마켓 개설일
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in forecast models for New York City Central Park's lowest temperature on May 18, with evenly distributed implied probabilities across 54–69°F bins stemming from divergent GFS and ECMWF runs. The latest GFS ensemble hints at a cool shot with lows near 54°F amid a potential shortwave trough enhancing radiative cooling under clear skies, while ECMWF solutions favor milder conditions around 60–65°F due to persistent ridging and higher cloud cover. National Weather Service climatological normals peg mid-May lows at 54°F, but model spread highlights sensitivity to upper-air patterns and timing of any frontal passage. New 12Z runs from NOAA's Global Forecast System and European Centre ensembles expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen the outlook as resolution nears.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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