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Iran Nuclear Deal AI Bubble Post Election Competitive Races Fed Trump New Zealand Election South Africa Municipal Elections Spain Elections Astra Iran Israel Election AI LoL Worlds 2026 Derivatives

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What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? card icon

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)

12%

≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)

11%

Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)

12%

≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)

11%

$2M Vol.

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...? card icon

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?

16%

chance

Yes

No

$527K Vol.

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? card icon

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

10%

chance

Yes

No

$337K Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? card icon

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 31

10%

November 30

3%

December 31

10%

November 30

3%

$21M Vol.

Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? card icon

Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?

8%

chance

Yes

No

$13K Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? card icon

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

3%

chance

Yes

No

$30M Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? card icon

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

7%

chance

Yes

No

$2M Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? card icon

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

5%

chance

Yes

No

$19M Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027? card icon

Iran Nuke before 2027?

3%

chance

Yes

No

$2M Vol.

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? card icon

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

7%

chance

Yes

No

$673K Vol.

Iran nuclear test before 2027? card icon

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$315K Vol.

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