US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear weaponization timeline remains 9-12 months despite US-Israeli airstrikes since February that damaged facilities like Natanz's pilot enrichment plant, leaving highly enriched uranium stockpiles—up to 60% purity—largely intact and unverified at underground Isfahan sites, per IAEA February reports. IAEA access remains restricted amid ongoing war and ceasefire talks, with Iran threatening 90% weapons-grade enrichment if attacked further but showing no confirmed weapon design or testing progress. Trader consensus at 91% on "No" reflects this extended breakout-to-weapon path likely exceeding 2026, though escalation, diplomatic collapse, or hidden advances could shift odds.