Traders assign a 98.5% probability to "No" on Iran acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, driven primarily by U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 that damaged key enrichment sites including Natanz and Fordow, with IAEA reports confirming no visible reconstruction activity since. Limited inspector access has persisted beyond a single Bushehr visit, leaving the status of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium unverified and constraining any rapid weaponization pathway under NPT safeguards. Ongoing diplomatic mediation involving regional actors has reinforced expectations of continued constraints through early 2027. Remaining uncertainty centers on potential undetected diversion of material or shifts in security conditions that could accelerate covert efforts before year-end.