Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 inflicted extensive damage on Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with centrifuge production and related infrastructure, while leaving a large stockpile of 60% enriched uranium largely inaccessible under rubble. IAEA inspectors have had minimal access to key sites since the attacks, preventing verification of any resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities, and public reporting indicates the program remains largely dormant. Iranian officials continue to deny pursuit of nuclear weapons, with no confirmed political decision to weaponize despite internal debate, and assessments from U.S. intelligence place any potential breakout timeline at nine to twelve months or longer. Trader consensus at 96.5% for no nuclear weapon by end-2026 reflects these setbacks and persistent barriers, though renewed access disputes, undetected reconstruction at secondary sites, or a rapid policy shift could still alter the outlook before 2027.