Recent meteorological model consensus, including runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Global Forecast System, points to a daytime maximum of 26°C in Moscow under overcast skies with light rain and southerly flow advecting milder air. This alignment with observed surface temperatures and boundary-layer stability has produced the overwhelming market-implied probability near 100 percent for that exact threshold. Historical May climatology for the region shows average highs near 18–20°C, so the current anomaly reflects a transient warm episode rather than a long-term shift. A faster-moving cold front or heavier precipitation bands could still trim the peak by 1–2°C before evening observations close, though guidance indicates low likelihood of such a revision before the daily maximum is recorded.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Moscow on May 17?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 17?
26°C 99.8%
27°C <1%
28°C or higher <1%
18°C or below <1%
$44,330 Wol.
$44,330 Wol.
May 17, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
100%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
26°C 99.8%
27°C <1%
28°C or higher <1%
18°C or below <1%
$44,330 Wol.
$44,330 Wol.
May 17, 2026
18°C or below
$1,628 Wol.
<1%
19°C
$1,641 Wol.
<1%
20°C
$1,344 Wol.
<1%
21°C
$3,934 Wol.
<1%
22°C
$2,252 Wol.
<1%
23°C
$4,335 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$4,517 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$6,198 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$6,848 Wol.
100%
27°C
$5,517 Wol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$6,119 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent meteorological model consensus, including runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Global Forecast System, points to a daytime maximum of 26°C in Moscow under overcast skies with light rain and southerly flow advecting milder air. This alignment with observed surface temperatures and boundary-layer stability has produced the overwhelming market-implied probability near 100 percent for that exact threshold. Historical May climatology for the region shows average highs near 18–20°C, so the current anomaly reflects a transient warm episode rather than a long-term shift. A faster-moving cold front or heavier precipitation bands could still trim the peak by 1–2°C before evening observations close, though guidance indicates low likelihood of such a revision before the daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Wolumen
$44,330Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent meteorological model consensus, including runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Global Forecast System, points to a daytime maximum of 26°C in Moscow under overcast skies with light rain and southerly flow advecting milder air. This alignment with observed surface temperatures and boundary-layer stability has produced the overwhelming market-implied probability near 100 percent for that exact threshold. Historical May climatology for the region shows average highs near 18–20°C, so the current anomaly reflects a transient warm episode rather than a long-term shift. A faster-moving cold front or heavier precipitation bands could still trim the peak by 1–2°C before evening observations close, though guidance indicates low likelihood of such a revision before the daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$44,330Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent meteorological model consensus, including runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Global Forecast System, points to a daytime maximum of 26°C in Moscow under overcast skies with light rain and southerly flow advecting milder air. This alignment with observed surface temperatures and boundary-layer stability has produced the overwhelming market-implied probability near 100 percent for that exact threshold. Historical May climatology for the region shows average highs near 18–20°C, so the current anomaly reflects a transient warm episode rather than a long-term shift. A faster-moving cold front or heavier precipitation bands could still trim the peak by 1–2°C before evening observations close, though guidance indicates low likelihood of such a revision before the daily maximum is recorded.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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