Current forecasts from MetService New Zealand and global numerical weather prediction models indicate a daytime maximum of 14°C in Wellington on May 17, aligning closely with the market-implied probability exceeding 99 percent for that exact outcome. This positioning reflects typical mid-autumn conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, where moderate southerly winds, persistent high cloud cover, and limited solar heating suppress warming near the long-term May average high of 14°C. Official resolution depends on the highest recorded temperature at Wellington’s primary monitoring stations. A shift to clearer skies or stronger northerly flow could allow modest warming above 15°C, though ensemble consensus shows low probability of such deviations before the market closes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Wellington on May 17?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 17?
14°C 99.8%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$53,942 Wol.
$53,942 Wol.
May 17, 2026
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
14°C 99.8%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$53,942 Wol.
$53,942 Wol.
May 17, 2026
8°C or below
$4,661 Wol.
No
9°C
$2,840 Wol.
No
10°C
$2,362 Wol.
No
11°C
$4,007 Wol.
No
12°C
$2,263 Wol.
No
13°C
$7,921 Wol.
No
14°C
$7,851 Wol.
Yes
15°C
$4,663 Wol.
No
16°C
$8,352 Wol.
No
17°C
$4,197 Wol.
No
18°C or higher
$4,824 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from MetService New Zealand and global numerical weather prediction models indicate a daytime maximum of 14°C in Wellington on May 17, aligning closely with the market-implied probability exceeding 99 percent for that exact outcome. This positioning reflects typical mid-autumn conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, where moderate southerly winds, persistent high cloud cover, and limited solar heating suppress warming near the long-term May average high of 14°C. Official resolution depends on the highest recorded temperature at Wellington’s primary monitoring stations. A shift to clearer skies or stronger northerly flow could allow modest warming above 15°C, though ensemble consensus shows low probability of such deviations before the market closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Wolumen
$53,942Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from MetService New Zealand and global numerical weather prediction models indicate a daytime maximum of 14°C in Wellington on May 17, aligning closely with the market-implied probability exceeding 99 percent for that exact outcome. This positioning reflects typical mid-autumn conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, where moderate southerly winds, persistent high cloud cover, and limited solar heating suppress warming near the long-term May average high of 14°C. Official resolution depends on the highest recorded temperature at Wellington’s primary monitoring stations. A shift to clearer skies or stronger northerly flow could allow modest warming above 15°C, though ensemble consensus shows low probability of such deviations before the market closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$53,942Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNCurrent forecasts from MetService New Zealand and global numerical weather prediction models indicate a daytime maximum of 14°C in Wellington on May 17, aligning closely with the market-implied probability exceeding 99 percent for that exact outcome. This positioning reflects typical mid-autumn conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, where moderate southerly winds, persistent high cloud cover, and limited solar heating suppress warming near the long-term May average high of 14°C. Official resolution depends on the highest recorded temperature at Wellington’s primary monitoring stations. A shift to clearer skies or stronger northerly flow could allow modest warming above 15°C, though ensemble consensus shows low probability of such deviations before the market closes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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