Cool maritime air and persistent cloud cover have locked in a 12°C high as the near-certain outcome for Amsterdam’s maximum temperature today, according to trader consensus. Official KNMI guidance and ECMWF ensemble forecasts indicate moderate northwest winds and scattered showers that limit afternoon insolation well below the mid-May climatological average of 16–18°C. Early morning readings near 8–10°C align closely with these model runs, while minimal expected sunshine duration keeps warming capped. New hourly observations from Schiphol and the next model update could still allow brief clearing that pushes readings toward 13°C, though current atmospheric conditions make such a shift unlikely before resolution.