Recent National Weather Service model runs favor a warm, dry air mass under high pressure across central Texas, promoting strong daytime solar heating and limited cloud cover that positions 90°F or higher as the market leader for Austin’s daily high on May 16. Southerly flow is advecting warmer air from the Gulf, with forecast guidance clustering in the upper 80s to low 90s—above the May climatological average of 86°F—while any increase in afternoon humidity or scattered clouds could cap the peak near 88–89°F. Official resolution will rely on the automated observation at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS), where even modest shifts in boundary-layer mixing or insolation could alter the final reading by 1–2°F.