Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Houston indicate a high near 86–88°F on May 16 under continued southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico and weak subsidence, keeping skies mostly sunny with afternoon heat indices above 90°F. The normal high of 87°F for mid-May provides a climatological baseline, while recent days above 90°F have primed the surface for potentially exceeding that threshold if convective cloud cover remains limited. Model consensus from the GFS and NAM shows modest spread around the peak temperature, with the tight 43.5–42.0% split between the 88°F-or-higher and 86–87°F outcomes reflecting uncertainty over exact timing of any sea-breeze front or scattered showers that could cap the daily maximum.