Recent ensemble runs from the ECMWF and GFS models show Munich’s maximum temperature on May 17 most likely peaking near 16–17 °C under a mix of broken cloud and light northwesterly flow that limits daytime insolation. This tight clustering explains the near-even market split between the 16 °C and 17 °C contracts, with only modest probability assigned to 15 °C or 18 °C if morning stratus lingers or clears earlier than expected. Mid-May climatology places the long-term average high at 17–18 °C, so current guidance sits slightly below seasonal norms; forecasters will issue updated high-resolution runs overnight that traders are watching for any shift in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed capable of altering the final maximum by 1–2 °C before resolution.