Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Deutscher Wetterdienst models indicate a modest warming trend over southern Germany, positioning Munich’s daily maximum near 19–20 °C on May 18. A weakening upper-level trough and increasing southerly flow are expected to enhance solar heating under partly cloudy skies, while surface pressure gradients remain weak enough to limit stronger advection. Climatological norms place mid-May highs around 17–19 °C, so the current setup sits slightly above average but within typical May variability. Model spread remains narrow, with limited divergence on boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, keeping adjacent outcomes competitive. Updated runs and afternoon observations from Munich Airport will provide the final calibration before resolution.