National Weather Service ensemble guidance and recent GFS-ECMWF model runs project a daytime high near 77°F for New York City on May 16 under a building high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and light southerly flow. This meteorological setup explains the dominant 76-77°F market-implied probability at 89.5%, as temperatures are expected to peak modestly above seasonal norms without reaching the 80°F threshold. Recent model consistency has reinforced trader consensus around this narrow range, with only minor upward revisions possible from localized urban heat effects or slight wind shifts. Forecasters anticipate official LaGuardia Airport observations will resolve the market by evening, aligning closely with climatological averages for mid-May.