Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a 25°C minimum temperature on May 15, 2026, driving the near-certain trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for that exact outcome. In mid-May subtropical conditions, overnight lows typically range 24–27°C beneath a persistent high-pressure ridge from the South China Sea, which limits radiative cooling and maintains stable boundary-layer temperatures. This verified station reading aligns with historical climatology and eliminates forecast uncertainty, as resolution relies on precise observatory data rather than models. Only an improbable pre-dawn clearing of skies combined with calm winds could have produced a dip to 24°C or lower, scenarios unsupported by the observed atmospheric setup.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
25°C 99.9%
18°C или ниже <1%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
$63,971 Объем
$63,971 Объем
18°C или ниже
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.9%
18°C или ниже <1%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
$63,971 Объем
$63,971 Объем
18°C или ниже
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a 25°C minimum temperature on May 15, 2026, driving the near-certain trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for that exact outcome. In mid-May subtropical conditions, overnight lows typically range 24–27°C beneath a persistent high-pressure ridge from the South China Sea, which limits radiative cooling and maintains stable boundary-layer temperatures. This verified station reading aligns with historical climatology and eliminates forecast uncertainty, as resolution relies on precise observatory data rather than models. Only an improbable pre-dawn clearing of skies combined with calm winds could have produced a dip to 24°C or lower, scenarios unsupported by the observed atmospheric setup.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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