Korea Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts and supporting ensemble models converge on a Seoul minimum of 14°C for May 17 under mostly clear skies and light winds, driving the market’s overwhelming 100% implied probability for that exact outcome. Mid-May climatology favors overnight lows in the 12–16°C range, with the current stable high-pressure pattern limiting moisture and enhancing radiational cooling to favor the lower end of that band. Traders view this as high-certainty given the short lead time and consistent guidance from official stations. The primary risk to the consensus stems from any unexpected increase in low-level cloud cover or wind overnight, which could trap heat and nudge the observed minimum to 15°C or higher when final KMA data are recorded between 3 a.m. and 9 a.m. local time.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Сеуле 17 мая?
14°C 100.0%
12°C или ниже <1%
13°C <1%
15°C <1%
$19,775 Объем
$19,775 Объем
12°C или ниже
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
100%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C или выше
<1%
14°C 100.0%
12°C или ниже <1%
13°C <1%
15°C <1%
$19,775 Объем
$19,775 Объем
12°C или ниже
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
100%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C или выше
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIKorea Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts and supporting ensemble models converge on a Seoul minimum of 14°C for May 17 under mostly clear skies and light winds, driving the market’s overwhelming 100% implied probability for that exact outcome. Mid-May climatology favors overnight lows in the 12–16°C range, with the current stable high-pressure pattern limiting moisture and enhancing radiational cooling to favor the lower end of that band. Traders view this as high-certainty given the short lead time and consistent guidance from official stations. The primary risk to the consensus stems from any unexpected increase in low-level cloud cover or wind overnight, which could trap heat and nudge the observed minimum to 15°C or higher when final KMA data are recorded between 3 a.m. and 9 a.m. local time.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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