Recent bilateral tensions have prompted several Iranian diplomat expulsions earlier in 2026, including the U.S. removal of a deputy UN envoy in December 2025 over national security grounds and Argentina's April declaration of Iran's chargé d'affaires as persona non grata after an IRGC terrorist designation dispute. Gulf states such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia also acted in March amid missile-related incidents. Since those discrete events, no comparable new triggers—such as fresh espionage allegations, proxy attacks, or policy shifts—have emerged to sustain momentum. Traders therefore assign the 78% probability to "No," reflecting expectations of a short-term lull in formal diplomatic actions through the June 30 resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
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Jun 30, 2026
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Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent bilateral tensions have prompted several Iranian diplomat expulsions earlier in 2026, including the U.S. removal of a deputy UN envoy in December 2025 over national security grounds and Argentina's April declaration of Iran's chargé d'affaires as persona non grata after an IRGC terrorist designation dispute. Gulf states such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia also acted in March amid missile-related incidents. Since those discrete events, no comparable new triggers—such as fresh espionage allegations, proxy attacks, or policy shifts—have emerged to sustain momentum. Traders therefore assign the 78% probability to "No," reflecting expectations of a short-term lull in formal diplomatic actions through the June 30 resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,649วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent bilateral tensions have prompted several Iranian diplomat expulsions earlier in 2026, including the U.S. removal of a deputy UN envoy in December 2025 over national security grounds and Argentina's April declaration of Iran's chargé d'affaires as persona non grata after an IRGC terrorist designation dispute. Gulf states such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia also acted in March amid missile-related incidents. Since those discrete events, no comparable new triggers—such as fresh espionage allegations, proxy attacks, or policy shifts—have emerged to sustain momentum. Traders therefore assign the 78% probability to "No," reflecting expectations of a short-term lull in formal diplomatic actions through the June 30 resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,649วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent bilateral tensions have prompted several Iranian diplomat expulsions earlier in 2026, including the U.S. removal of a deputy UN envoy in December 2025 over national security grounds and Argentina's April declaration of Iran's chargé d'affaires as persona non grata after an IRGC terrorist designation dispute. Gulf states such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia also acted in March amid missile-related incidents. Since those discrete events, no comparable new triggers—such as fresh espionage allegations, proxy attacks, or policy shifts—have emerged to sustain momentum. Traders therefore assign the 78% probability to "No," reflecting expectations of a short-term lull in formal diplomatic actions through the June 30 resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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