Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Warsaw high temperature of 19°C (41.5% implied probability) or 20°C (31.0%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble model runs projecting means near 19–20°C for May 15 amid a mild high-pressure ridge promoting settled conditions over Central Europe. Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) aligns with this, forecasting a maximum around 20°C with light precipitation possible, consistent with mid-May climatological norms where daily highs average 19°C. Recent 24-hour model updates show tight clustering around these values, reducing earlier spread from cooler northern influences, though thundery showers could cap peaks per BBC guidance. Final GFS and ECMWF outputs expected overnight may refine probabilities before observations resolve the market.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 15?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 15?
19°C 42%
20°C 32%
18°C 14.8%
21°C 8%
ใหม่
$23,527 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$23,527 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
15%
19°C
42%
20°C
32%
21°C
8%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
<1%
19°C 42%
20°C 32%
18°C 14.8%
21°C 8%
ใหม่
$23,527 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$23,527 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
15°C or below
$1,493 ปริมาณ
<1%
16°C
$690 ปริมาณ
1%
17°C
$1,159 ปริมาณ
1%
18°C
$2,190 ปริมาณ
15%
19°C
$3,800 ปริมาณ
42%
20°C
$1,579 ปริมาณ
32%
21°C
$2,778 ปริมาณ
8%
22°C
$2,771 ปริมาณ
2%
23°C
$5,577 ปริมาณ
1%
24°C
$680 ปริมาณ
1%
25°C or higher
$823 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Warsaw high temperature of 19°C (41.5% implied probability) or 20°C (31.0%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble model runs projecting means near 19–20°C for May 15 amid a mild high-pressure ridge promoting settled conditions over Central Europe. Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) aligns with this, forecasting a maximum around 20°C with light precipitation possible, consistent with mid-May climatological norms where daily highs average 19°C. Recent 24-hour model updates show tight clustering around these values, reducing earlier spread from cooler northern influences, though thundery showers could cap peaks per BBC guidance. Final GFS and ECMWF outputs expected overnight may refine probabilities before observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$23,527วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Warsaw high temperature of 19°C (41.5% implied probability) or 20°C (31.0%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble model runs projecting means near 19–20°C for May 15 amid a mild high-pressure ridge promoting settled conditions over Central Europe. Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) aligns with this, forecasting a maximum around 20°C with light precipitation possible, consistent with mid-May climatological norms where daily highs average 19°C. Recent 24-hour model updates show tight clustering around these values, reducing earlier spread from cooler northern influences, though thundery showers could cap peaks per BBC guidance. Final GFS and ECMWF outputs expected overnight may refine probabilities before observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$23,527วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Warsaw high temperature of 19°C (41.5% implied probability) or 20°C (31.0%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble model runs projecting means near 19–20°C for May 15 amid a mild high-pressure ridge promoting settled conditions over Central Europe. Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) aligns with this, forecasting a maximum around 20°C with light precipitation possible, consistent with mid-May climatological norms where daily highs average 19°C. Recent 24-hour model updates show tight clustering around these values, reducing earlier spread from cooler northern influences, though thundery showers could cap peaks per BBC guidance. Final GFS and ECMWF outputs expected overnight may refine probabilities before observations resolve the market.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย