Trader consensus assigns 100% implied probability to 18°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on May 14, driven by official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) confirming a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds from a cool continental air mass. Recent showers through May 12–13 suppressed highs to 13°C amid a lingering low-pressure system, but today's partial clearing aligned with ECMWF, GFS, and IMGW ensemble forecasts clustering at 17–19°C, consistent with mid-May climatological norms of 18–19°C daytime highs. Evening METAR reports at 17°C indicate the peak has passed, with increasing cloud cover likely preventing further warming. Realistic challenges include unexpected late-day sunshine piercing clouds for a brief 19°C spike or minor data revisions upon finalization via Weather Underground, though model guidance shows thunderstorms capping upside potential.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 14?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 14?
18°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$43,060 ปริมาณ
$43,060 ปริมาณ
May 14, 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$43,060 ปริมาณ
$43,060 ปริมาณ
May 14, 2026
13°C or below
$1,035 ปริมาณ
No
14°C
$1,610 ปริมาณ
No
15°C
$1,793 ปริมาณ
No
16°C
$2,985 ปริมาณ
No
17°C
$7,162 ปริมาณ
No
18°C
$7,710 ปริมาณ
Yes
19°C
$5,474 ปริมาณ
No
20°C
$6,177 ปริมาณ
No
21°C
$2,051 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$2,932 ปริมาณ
No
23°C or higher
$4,131 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns 100% implied probability to 18°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on May 14, driven by official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) confirming a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds from a cool continental air mass. Recent showers through May 12–13 suppressed highs to 13°C amid a lingering low-pressure system, but today's partial clearing aligned with ECMWF, GFS, and IMGW ensemble forecasts clustering at 17–19°C, consistent with mid-May climatological norms of 18–19°C daytime highs. Evening METAR reports at 17°C indicate the peak has passed, with increasing cloud cover likely preventing further warming. Realistic challenges include unexpected late-day sunshine piercing clouds for a brief 19°C spike or minor data revisions upon finalization via Weather Underground, though model guidance shows thunderstorms capping upside potential.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$43,060วันสิ้นสุด
May 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns 100% implied probability to 18°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on May 14, driven by official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) confirming a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds from a cool continental air mass. Recent showers through May 12–13 suppressed highs to 13°C amid a lingering low-pressure system, but today's partial clearing aligned with ECMWF, GFS, and IMGW ensemble forecasts clustering at 17–19°C, consistent with mid-May climatological norms of 18–19°C daytime highs. Evening METAR reports at 17°C indicate the peak has passed, with increasing cloud cover likely preventing further warming. Realistic challenges include unexpected late-day sunshine piercing clouds for a brief 19°C spike or minor data revisions upon finalization via Weather Underground, though model guidance shows thunderstorms capping upside potential.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$43,060วันสิ้นสุด
May 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus assigns 100% implied probability to 18°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on May 14, driven by official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) confirming a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds from a cool continental air mass. Recent showers through May 12–13 suppressed highs to 13°C amid a lingering low-pressure system, but today's partial clearing aligned with ECMWF, GFS, and IMGW ensemble forecasts clustering at 17–19°C, consistent with mid-May climatological norms of 18–19°C daytime highs. Evening METAR reports at 17°C indicate the peak has passed, with increasing cloud cover likely preventing further warming. Realistic challenges include unexpected late-day sunshine piercing clouds for a brief 19°C spike or minor data revisions upon finalization via Weather Underground, though model guidance shows thunderstorms capping upside potential.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย