Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models have converged on a maximum of 12–13°C in Warsaw on May 17, driving the near-even market-implied odds for these outcomes. Persistent northerly airflow over central Poland, reinforced by lingering low-level stratiform cloud cover, continues to limit daytime solar insolation and suppress surface heating well below the mid-May climatological average high near 19°C. Minor variations in the timing of any partial clearing or subtle wind shifts across the latest model runs account for the narrow spread between 12°C and 13°C, while the modest probability attached to 14°C captures residual upside potential if boundary-layer mixing strengthens more than currently projected. Traders are now focused on the final 24-hour model updates and official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport that will resolve the contract.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 17?
13°C 35%
12°C 33.5%
14°C 19%
11°C 10%
ใหม่
$14,391 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$14,391 ปริมาณ
May 17, 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
10%
12°C
34%
13°C
35%
14°C
19%
15°C or higher
4%
13°C 35%
12°C 33.5%
14°C 19%
11°C 10%
ใหม่
$14,391 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$14,391 ปริมาณ
May 17, 2026
5°C or below
$660 ปริมาณ
<1%
6°C
$979 ปริมาณ
<1%
7°C
$435 ปริมาณ
<1%
8°C
$527 ปริมาณ
<1%
9°C
$585 ปริมาณ
<1%
10°C
$1,972 ปริมาณ
2%
11°C
$1,803 ปริมาณ
10%
12°C
$1,209 ปริมาณ
34%
13°C
$1,815 ปริมาณ
35%
14°C
$2,150 ปริมาณ
19%
15°C or higher
$2,338 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models have converged on a maximum of 12–13°C in Warsaw on May 17, driving the near-even market-implied odds for these outcomes. Persistent northerly airflow over central Poland, reinforced by lingering low-level stratiform cloud cover, continues to limit daytime solar insolation and suppress surface heating well below the mid-May climatological average high near 19°C. Minor variations in the timing of any partial clearing or subtle wind shifts across the latest model runs account for the narrow spread between 12°C and 13°C, while the modest probability attached to 14°C captures residual upside potential if boundary-layer mixing strengthens more than currently projected. Traders are now focused on the final 24-hour model updates and official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport that will resolve the contract.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$14,391วันสิ้นสุด
May 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models have converged on a maximum of 12–13°C in Warsaw on May 17, driving the near-even market-implied odds for these outcomes. Persistent northerly airflow over central Poland, reinforced by lingering low-level stratiform cloud cover, continues to limit daytime solar insolation and suppress surface heating well below the mid-May climatological average high near 19°C. Minor variations in the timing of any partial clearing or subtle wind shifts across the latest model runs account for the narrow spread between 12°C and 13°C, while the modest probability attached to 14°C captures residual upside potential if boundary-layer mixing strengthens more than currently projected. Traders are now focused on the final 24-hour model updates and official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport that will resolve the contract.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$14,391วันสิ้นสุด
May 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWARecent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models have converged on a maximum of 12–13°C in Warsaw on May 17, driving the near-even market-implied odds for these outcomes. Persistent northerly airflow over central Poland, reinforced by lingering low-level stratiform cloud cover, continues to limit daytime solar insolation and suppress surface heating well below the mid-May climatological average high near 19°C. Minor variations in the timing of any partial clearing or subtle wind shifts across the latest model runs account for the narrow spread between 12°C and 13°C, while the modest probability attached to 14°C captures residual upside potential if boundary-layer mixing strengthens more than currently projected. Traders are now focused on the final 24-hour model updates and official observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport that will resolve the contract.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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