Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth printed at a 2.0 percent annualized rate, accelerating from 0.5 percent in Q4 2025 and driven primarily by business fixed investment in AI-related equipment alongside exports and government outlays. This outcome, coupled with April CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year amid energy-price pressures from Middle East tensions and softer consumer spending, has anchored trader-implied odds in a narrow band, with the 2.0–2.5 percent and 2.5–3.0 percent ranges commanding 25.5 percent and 21.0 percent respectively. Cooling labor-market signals and tariff pass-through risks further compress upside scenarios while supporting the closely contested distribution across the 1.5–3.0 percent outcomes. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast near 3.7 percent and upcoming May retail sales plus ISM surveys represent key swing factors that could reprice the market-implied probabilities ahead of the July advance estimate.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วUS GDP growth in Q2 2026?
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 21%
1.5–2.0% 20%
3.0–3.5% 16%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 30, 2026
<1.0%
8%
1.0–1.5%
9%
1.5–2.0%
20%
2.0–2.5%
26%
2.5–3.0%
21%
3.0–3.5%
16%
≥3.5%
7%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 21%
1.5–2.0% 20%
3.0–3.5% 16%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 30, 2026
<1.0%
$593 ปริมาณ
8%
1.0–1.5%
$353 ปริมาณ
9%
1.5–2.0%
$293 ปริมาณ
20%
2.0–2.5%
$536 ปริมาณ
26%
2.5–3.0%
$420 ปริมาณ
21%
3.0–3.5%
$661 ปริมาณ
16%
≥3.5%
$509 ปริมาณ
7%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth printed at a 2.0 percent annualized rate, accelerating from 0.5 percent in Q4 2025 and driven primarily by business fixed investment in AI-related equipment alongside exports and government outlays. This outcome, coupled with April CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year amid energy-price pressures from Middle East tensions and softer consumer spending, has anchored trader-implied odds in a narrow band, with the 2.0–2.5 percent and 2.5–3.0 percent ranges commanding 25.5 percent and 21.0 percent respectively. Cooling labor-market signals and tariff pass-through risks further compress upside scenarios while supporting the closely contested distribution across the 1.5–3.0 percent outcomes. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast near 3.7 percent and upcoming May retail sales plus ISM surveys represent key swing factors that could reprice the market-implied probabilities ahead of the July advance estimate.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,365วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth printed at a 2.0 percent annualized rate, accelerating from 0.5 percent in Q4 2025 and driven primarily by business fixed investment in AI-related equipment alongside exports and government outlays. This outcome, coupled with April CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year amid energy-price pressures from Middle East tensions and softer consumer spending, has anchored trader-implied odds in a narrow band, with the 2.0–2.5 percent and 2.5–3.0 percent ranges commanding 25.5 percent and 21.0 percent respectively. Cooling labor-market signals and tariff pass-through risks further compress upside scenarios while supporting the closely contested distribution across the 1.5–3.0 percent outcomes. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast near 3.7 percent and upcoming May retail sales plus ISM surveys represent key swing factors that could reprice the market-implied probabilities ahead of the July advance estimate.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,365วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth printed at a 2.0 percent annualized rate, accelerating from 0.5 percent in Q4 2025 and driven primarily by business fixed investment in AI-related equipment alongside exports and government outlays. This outcome, coupled with April CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year amid energy-price pressures from Middle East tensions and softer consumer spending, has anchored trader-implied odds in a narrow band, with the 2.0–2.5 percent and 2.5–3.0 percent ranges commanding 25.5 percent and 21.0 percent respectively. Cooling labor-market signals and tariff pass-through risks further compress upside scenarios while supporting the closely contested distribution across the 1.5–3.0 percent outcomes. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast near 3.7 percent and upcoming May retail sales plus ISM surveys represent key swing factors that could reprice the market-implied probabilities ahead of the July advance estimate.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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