Recent diplomatic exchanges mediated by Pakistan have sustained a fragile ceasefire in place since early April 2026, after U.S. and Israeli strikes initiated the 2026 Iran conflict. Negotiations center on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, limiting Iran's uranium enrichment and ballistic missile programs, lifting U.S. sanctions, and establishing a framework for longer-term stability. U.S. officials have described incremental progress toward a memorandum of understanding that could end active hostilities while deferring deeper nuclear talks, yet Iranian counter-proposals have drawn criticism from President Trump for falling short on core demands. Continued talks in Islamabad and back-channel diplomacy remain the primary drivers, with any breakthrough hinging on verifiable commitments regarding enrichment caps and navigation rights that could shift probabilities for a permanent agreement.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วUS extends cease‑fire at Pakistan’s request while awaiting unified Iranian proposal
December 31 rises to 77%3%
The extension temporarily lifted odds for the December‑31 outcome, reflected in a price rise that day.
Trump says he is reviewing new Iranian proposal but skeptical of deal
May 15 dips to 0%1%
President Trump announced he was reviewing a new Iranian peace proposal but expressed skepticism about its acceptability, indicating ongoing negotiation challenges. This contributed to a further decline in market optimism for a peace deal by May 15.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing fractured leadership
May 31 dips to 10%4%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, expressing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran’s fractured leadership, which dampened market optimism for a near-term permanent peace deal.
Iran detains leading human‑rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh
May 15 drops to 0%7%
The crackdown on dissent signaled internal instability in Iran, further weakening expectations of a durable peace and pushing the May 15 price to zero.
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi says Tehran will not compromise on nuclear issue
June 30 plunges to 38%17%
Araghchi’s hard‑line statement reduced optimism for any near‑term agreement, further depressing the June‑30 odds.
Iranian foreign minister returns to Pakistan for renewed negotiations
May 31 drops to 24%7%
The foreign minister’s visit was seen as a concrete step toward a diplomatic resolution, briefly stabilizing market sentiment for the May 31 outcome before subsequent setbacks.
U.S. blockade leads to seizure of additional Iranian tankers
May 13 drops to 0%14%
Further interdictions reinforced the perception that the conflict was far from resolution, pushing the market for the May 13 outcome toward zero.
Trump extends ceasefire but maintains naval blockade on Iran
December 31 drops to 71%7%
President Trump extended the ceasefire between the US and Iran but insisted on maintaining the naval blockade, signaling ongoing conflict risks. This mixed message caused market fluctuations and uncertainty about a permanent peace deal by mid-2026.
Trump announces “Project Freedom” to guide ships out of Hormuz, then pauses it
December 31 drops to 70%8%
The brief opening of the strait raised optimism, but the sudden pause signaled uncertainty, causing a modest dip in Yes prices across all dates.
US Navy disables two more Iranian tankers, raising cease‑fire doubts
June 15 dips to 16%1%
Continued US interdictions further eroded confidence in a swift settlement, pulling down the June‑15 odds to their lowest level.
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 5%10%
A direct military engagement by U.S. forces heightened tensions and signaled a possible escalation, causing the market to sharply downgrade the chances of any peace deal before May 15.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 31 dips to 10%3%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz, casting doubt on the ceasefire's durability and reducing confidence in a near-term permanent peace deal.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz, challenging the fragile ceasefire and raising doubts about the prospects for a permanent peace deal. The US awaited a serious offer from Iran to end the war.
Pakistan mediators report progress toward a new U.S.–Iran agreement
June 30 surges to 54%20%
Positive statements from Pakistani officials lifted market sentiment, temporarily raising Yes prices for the later June 30 and December 31 horizons.
Trump says Iran has offered a “much better” proposal
May 15 dips to 5%4%
Trump’s comment that Iran’s latest offer was substantially improved revived optimism for a quick deal, causing a short‑term price uptick for the May 15 outcome.
U.S. Navy shoots down Iranian fast boats near the Strait
May 31 plunges to 19%25%
A direct military engagement further diminished hopes for a quick settlement, sharply reducing the May 31 and June 30 probabilities.
Trump says Iran has sent a ‘much better’ proposal via Pakistan
July 31 dips to 46%1%
Trump’s comment that Iran’s new proposal was “much better” revived optimism for a permanent deal, pushing the July‑31 odds higher.
Trump hints at “shoot and kill” policy against small boats in Hormuz
May 15 drops to 7%8%
Escalatory rhetoric raised the prospect of renewed combat, pushing Yes prices lower for the near‑term May 15 deadline.
Asian markets rally on hopes of renewed US‑Iran talks
May 31 dips to 12%2%
Stocks rose in Asia after reports that back‑channel diplomacy was progressing, briefly boosting confidence in a May 31 settlement.
Trump reviews new Iranian proposal to end war but remains skeptical
May 15 plunges to 0%15%
President Trump announced he was reviewing a new 14-point Iranian proposal to end the war but expressed doubt it would be acceptable, reflecting ongoing negotiation challenges. This tempered market optimism for a permanent peace deal by mid-May and end of May.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing fractured leadership
May 31 drops to 10%8%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, expressing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran’s fractured leadership. This rejection diminished market expectations for a near-term permanent peace deal, especially by May 31 and June 15.
Asian markets rally on hopes of renewed US‑Iran negotiations
December 31 rises to 74%4%
Positive market sentiment from Asian equities reflected optimism about diplomatic talks, nudging the December‑31 odds upward.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid stalled talks; Trump calls off envoy trip
June 30 drops to 35%5%
Iran’s foreign minister briefly returned to Pakistan to pursue ceasefire talks, but President Trump canceled the US envoy mission citing lack of progress, opting for phone negotiations instead. This uncertainty contributed to declining market confidence for a peace deal by June 30 and July 31.
U.S. warns shipping firms of sanctions for paying Iran to transit Hormuz
May 31 dips to 14%4%
The sanctions warning added economic pressure on Iran and signaled a tougher U.S. stance, pushing market prices for later deadlines lower.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid stalled talks; Trump suggests phone talks
May 31 drops to 31%8%
Iran’s foreign minister briefly returned to Pakistan to pursue ceasefire talks, but President Trump canceled envoy visits and suggested phone calls instead, signaling stalled negotiations and maintaining military pressure. This uncertainty contributed to market volatility and declining short-term peace probabilities.
Trump says Iran has offered a ‘much better’ peace proposal
December 31 jumps to 78%8%
President Trump publicly noted that Iran had submitted a more favorable proposal, raising hopes for a settlement and pushing the market’s probability for a December‑31 deal higher.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid stalled envoy mission
December 31 dips to 63%1%
Iran’s foreign minister briefly returned to Pakistan as US envoy mission was canceled by Trump due to lack of progress, signaling stalled direct talks and increasing uncertainty about a near-term permanent peace deal.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal as unsatisfactory
The president’s dismissal of a new Iranian proposal reduced expectations of a deal, causing another price decline.
Diplomats work through back‑channels to arrange a new US‑Iran round of talks
June 30 plunges to 55%15%
Back‑channel efforts signaled possible progress, modestly improving odds for the June‑30 and July‑31 outcomes after a period of decline.
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 dips to 28%4%
President Trump called off the planned US delegation trip to Pakistan for ceasefire talks citing lack of progress, signaling stalled diplomacy. This reduced market optimism for a near-term permanent peace deal, especially by May 31 and June 15.
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks, suggests phone calls instead
December 31 drops to 70%8%
President Trump called off the planned trip of US envoys to Pakistan for follow-up talks with Iran, citing lack of progress, and proposed phone negotiations. This move dampened market optimism for a near-term peace deal.
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 15 drops to 0%10%
President Trump called off the planned US delegation trip to Pakistan for follow-up talks with Iran, citing lack of progress. This move dampened market optimism for a near-term peace deal and contributed to price declines for earlier resolution dates.
Iranian foreign minister returns to Pakistan, Trump says talks can be by phone
Araghchi’s brief return and Trump’s refusal to send envoys signaled stalled diplomacy, pulling Yes prices down.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
July 31 drops to 38%12%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. This action cast doubt on the ceasefire's durability and reduced market optimism for a peace deal by June 30 and July 31.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing fractured leadership
May 31 plunges to 38%23%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran's latest proposal to end the war, expressing dissatisfaction and highlighting Iran's fractured leadership. This rejection dampened near-term optimism for a peace deal, reflected in falling market prices for May 31 and May 15 outcomes.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing dissatisfaction
US President Trump publicly rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran’s fractured leadership. This rejection dampened market confidence in a near-term peace deal and contributed to price declines for earlier resolution dates.
Iran fires on ships in Strait of Hormuz amid US blockade
May 31 drops to 32%6%
Iranian forces fired on ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, escalating military tensions and undermining ceasefire stability. This increased doubts about a permanent peace deal by May 31 and June 30.
Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire but maintains naval blockade
June 15 dips to 18%2%
President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran but insisted on maintaining the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, signaling continued economic pressure and unresolved conflict. This mixed message kept market confidence low for a permanent peace deal by June 15 and June 30.
Trump orders U.S. forces to “shoot and kill” small boats in Hormuz
May 15 drops to 9%6%
Trump’s aggressive directive signaled a willingness to use force, further eroding market expectations of a diplomatic resolution before the May 15 deadline.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 13%9%
The US naval action further escalated the standoff, pushing market sentiment toward a ‘No’ outcome for all dates, especially the near‑term May‑31 option.
US extends ceasefire with Iran amid ongoing negotiations
December 31 rises to 78%4%
President Trump indefinitely extended the ceasefire agreed with Iran, signaling willingness to continue diplomacy despite ongoing military and economic tensions. This extension provided some market support for a potential peace deal.
Pakistani mediators work to arrange new US-Iran ceasefire talks as tensions rise
Pakistan continued efforts to mediate between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire and reach a peace deal amid ongoing military tensions and economic sanctions. This sustained diplomatic engagement supported market optimism for a longer-term peace agreement.
Ceasefire between US and Iran expires amid stalled talks
May 15 plunges to 0%15%
The expiration of the ceasefire without a new agreement heightened tensions and uncertainty. Both sides remained divided on key issues such as Iran's nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to market declines for near-term peace deal probabilities.
Pakistan mediates progress toward extending ceasefire and talks
December 31 jumps to 64%10%
Pakistani officials reported an 'in principle agreement' between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire and continue diplomacy, raising hopes for a peace deal and temporarily boosting market confidence for later resolution dates.
Trump extends cease‑fire but maintains blockade
Trump’s announcement of an indefinite cease‑fire extension offered a brief optimism boost, nudging Yes prices upward.
U.S. and Iran resume indirect talks in Pakistan after blockade
December 31 jumps to 70%7%
Back‑channel negotiations were reported to be underway, offering a glimmer of diplomatic progress that temporarily boosted the market’s outlook for a deal by the end of the year.
US President Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
June 15 dips to 17%3%
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s proposal lowered expectations for any imminent agreement, causing a sharp drop in the June‑15 and June‑30 odds.
Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire but maintains naval blockade
June 30 drops to 57%9%
President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely while keeping the naval blockade, signaling ongoing conflict risk and unresolved issues. This mixed message affected market confidence, especially for near-term peace deal dates.
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Hormuz
May 13 drops to 14%8%
The seizure heightened tensions and suggested the ceasefire could collapse, prompting traders to sharply reduce the probability of a permanent agreement before the May 13 deadline.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 18%12%
The US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade, provoking Iran's military to vow a swift response. This incident heightened tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, negatively impacting market probabilities for a peace deal by May 31.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
June 30 dips to 54%3%
The US seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade, which Iran condemned as a ceasefire violation. This incident heightened tensions and cast doubt on the ceasefire's durability, negatively affecting peace deal odds.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
May 31 drops to 23%8%
President Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s newest offer, removing any immediate optimism for a deal and causing a further drop in market confidence for all outcomes.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near the Strait
The first seizure since the blockade signaled a direct confrontation, further eroding market confidence in a swift peace settlement.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
The US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade, prompting Iran to vow a swift response and casting doubt on the ceasefire's durability. This heightened tensions and lowered short-term peace deal probabilities.
US seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz, Iran vows swift response
May 13 plunges to 0%22%
The US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade, marking a ceasefire violation and escalating tensions. President Trump announced US negotiators would attend talks in Pakistan, but Iran had not confirmed participation, maintaining uncertainty about peace progress.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to US blockade
June 30 plunges to 45%16%
Iran reversed its reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating the standoff after the US blockade of Iranian ports. This action threatened to deepen the conflict and global energy crisis, undermining peace prospects.
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships after US blockade
May 31 plunges to 33%22%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard fully closed the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation to the US naval blockade, firing on ships and escalating tensions. This action threatened the fragile ceasefire and cast doubt on imminent peace negotiations, causing market declines for near-term resolution dates.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on passing ships
December 31 jumps to 63%9%
The IRGC announced a full closure of the strategic waterway and engaged vessels, dramatically raising the risk of continued conflict and lowering market confidence in a permanent peace deal.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
May 31 drops to 31%9%
Iran’s IRGC announced the complete closure of the strategic waterway and engaged vessels, signaling a hardening stance that pushed market prices for a peace deal sharply lower.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
Iran's Revolutionary Guard closed the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions and threatening global energy supplies. This action challenged the fragile ceasefire and reduced market confidence in a near-term peace deal.
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz again, fires on ships amid US blockade
June 30 drops to 57%9%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard fully closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting passage, escalating military tensions and threatening the fragile ceasefire, reducing confidence in a near-term permanent peace deal.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
Iran’s closure of the strategic waterway heightened the risk of renewed hostilities, causing a sharp decline in Yes probabilities for all dates.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
May 31 drops to 30%5%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard navy closed the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions and threatening global energy supplies. This action undermined ceasefire hopes and decreased market confidence in a near-term permanent peace deal by May 31 and June 30.
Historic face-to-face US-Iran talks in Pakistan end without agreement
June 30 dips to 66%4%
A 21-hour direct negotiation between US and Iranian delegations in Pakistan failed to produce a permanent peace deal, with nuclear program disputes cited as a key sticking point. This maintained uncertainty and limited near-term deal prospects.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan for renewed talks
June 30 surges to 70%29%
Abbas Araghchi’s brief visit raised hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough, temporarily lifting odds for the June‑30 and July‑31 outcomes.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to arrange US-Iran talks before ceasefire ends
June 30 dips to 54%3%
Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to ease tensions and arrange a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expiration. This diplomatic move raised hopes for progress, temporarily supporting market optimism for a peace deal by June 30.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fires on ships attempting to pass the Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 22%6%
Iran’s aggressive action heightened tensions and reduced market confidence that a permanent peace could be achieved before the cease‑fire expires, further depressing the May‑31 and June‑15 odds.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to push for US-Iran talks before ceasefire ends
December 31 surges to 71%30%
Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to ease Middle East tensions and arrange a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expiration. This diplomatic move raised hopes for a peace deal, increasing market confidence for later resolution dates.
US announces naval blockade of Iranian ports amid stalled talks
June 30 surges to 70%29%
President Trump declared a military blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a deal, following failed ceasefire talks in Pakistan. This escalated tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, negatively impacting near-term peace deal probabilities.
Diplomats work to arrange new US-Iran talks amid blockade and regional tensions
December 31 surges to 70%29%
Diplomats engaged in back-channel efforts to set up a new round of talks between the US and Iran following the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. President Trump indicated talks could happen soon in Islamabad, raising market hopes for a diplomatic resolution.
Pakistan pushes for new US-Iran talks amid fragile ceasefire
December 31 surges to 71%30%
Pakistan's diplomatic efforts to arrange a second round of US-Iran negotiations raised hopes for a peace deal, temporarily boosting market confidence for later resolution dates. The talks aimed to bridge differences after the initial round failed to end the conflict.
Diplomats work to arrange a new round of U.S.–Iran talks
Back‑channel efforts by Pakistani officials and the UN to restart negotiations signaled possible progress, temporarily boosting confidence in a peace outcome.
Diplomats work to arrange new US-Iran talks amid US blockade
June 30 surges to 71%30%
On April 14, diplomats engaged in back-channel efforts to schedule new talks between the US and Iran following the US blockade of Iranian ports. President Trump indicated talks could occur in Islamabad soon, raising hopes and causing a rally in related markets.
President Trump announces full naval blockade of Iranian ports
Trump declared a comprehensive blockade aimed at pressuring Iran to negotiate a permanent peace, raising market optimism that a deal might be forced and pushing Yes prices higher across all horizons.
U.S. announces naval blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 dips to 40%4%
President Trump declared a full‑scale naval blockade of all Iranian ports, intensifying pressure on Tehran and prompting traders to downgrade the odds of a permanent peace deal before any deadline.
US announces naval blockade of Iranian ports amid stalled ceasefire talks
June 30 surges to 70%29%
President Trump declared a US military blockade of all Iranian ports following failed ceasefire talks in Pakistan, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This move aimed to pressure Iran into a deal but increased hostilities and uncertainty about peace prospects.
U.S. announces full naval blockade of Iranian ports
June 30 surges to 70%29%
President Trump declared a comprehensive blockade of Iran’s ports, signaling a hardening U.S. stance and prompting traders to downgrade the likelihood of any near‑term peace agreement.
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 28%16%
The seizure signaled a hardening US stance, undermining confidence that a permanent deal could be reached soon and pushing down odds for all outcomes, especially the near‑term May‑31 date.
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