The Iranian regime’s resilience after suppressing nationwide protests in early 2026 and completing a swift leadership transition following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underpins traders’ strong consensus that it will not fall by June 30. Security forces showed no major defections during the crackdown, while core institutions including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retained control amid U.S. and Israeli strikes, ongoing sanctions, and economic strain. Recent diplomatic and military developments have further reinforced the regime’s ability to manage internal dissent without immediate collapse. Although a sudden escalation in protests or unforeseen internal fracture remains theoretically possible, the absence of organized opposition momentum or elite defections in the short term supports the current implied probability.