Latest ensemble forecasts from Russian meteorological models indicate afternoon highs in Moscow on May 18 most likely between 27°C and 29°C, as a mild southwesterly flow advects warmer air while scattered cloud cover and light precipitation cap further warming. These conditions align with mid-May climatology where daily maxima typically range 18–26°C, though recent model runs show slight upward revisions in surface temperatures ahead of a weak frontal passage. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 27–29°C reflects this forecast consensus, with lower probabilities assigned to 30°C+ outcomes due to expected daytime cloud build-up and to sub-26°C readings given the absence of strong cold advection. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours will refine these projections before resolution based on official VDNKh observations.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Moscow on May 18?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 18?
29°C 28%
28°C 24%
30°C 20%
27°C 19%
BAGO
BAGO
May 18, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
6%
27°C
19%
28°C
24%
29°C
28%
30°C
20%
31°C or higher
13%
29°C 28%
28°C 24%
30°C 20%
27°C 19%
BAGO
BAGO
May 18, 2026
21°C or below
$580 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$453 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$738 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$643 Vol.
1%
25°C
$377 Vol.
1%
26°C
$208 Vol.
6%
27°C
$172 Vol.
19%
28°C
$175 Vol.
24%
29°C
$149 Vol.
28%
30°C
$105 Vol.
20%
31°C or higher
$185 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from Russian meteorological models indicate afternoon highs in Moscow on May 18 most likely between 27°C and 29°C, as a mild southwesterly flow advects warmer air while scattered cloud cover and light precipitation cap further warming. These conditions align with mid-May climatology where daily maxima typically range 18–26°C, though recent model runs show slight upward revisions in surface temperatures ahead of a weak frontal passage. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 27–29°C reflects this forecast consensus, with lower probabilities assigned to 30°C+ outcomes due to expected daytime cloud build-up and to sub-26°C readings given the absence of strong cold advection. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours will refine these projections before resolution based on official VDNKh observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Binuksan ang Market: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$3,774Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 18, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from Russian meteorological models indicate afternoon highs in Moscow on May 18 most likely between 27°C and 29°C, as a mild southwesterly flow advects warmer air while scattered cloud cover and light precipitation cap further warming. These conditions align with mid-May climatology where daily maxima typically range 18–26°C, though recent model runs show slight upward revisions in surface temperatures ahead of a weak frontal passage. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 27–29°C reflects this forecast consensus, with lower probabilities assigned to 30°C+ outcomes due to expected daytime cloud build-up and to sub-26°C readings given the absence of strong cold advection. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours will refine these projections before resolution based on official VDNKh observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,774Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 18, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETLatest ensemble forecasts from Russian meteorological models indicate afternoon highs in Moscow on May 18 most likely between 27°C and 29°C, as a mild southwesterly flow advects warmer air while scattered cloud cover and light precipitation cap further warming. These conditions align with mid-May climatology where daily maxima typically range 18–26°C, though recent model runs show slight upward revisions in surface temperatures ahead of a weak frontal passage. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 27–29°C reflects this forecast consensus, with lower probabilities assigned to 30°C+ outcomes due to expected daytime cloud build-up and to sub-26°C readings given the absence of strong cold advection. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours will refine these projections before resolution based on official VDNKh observations.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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