Recent polling averages show Abelardo de la Espriella maintaining a 6-8 point lead over Iván Cepeda Castro ahead of the June 21 runoff, consistent with trader emphasis on a 5-10% victory margin. Right-wing consolidation following the May 31 first round—via endorsements from Paloma Valencia, Álvaro Uribe, and Iván Duque—has channeled conservative and centrist votes toward de la Espriella’s security-focused platform, while Cepeda’s efforts to moderate on constitutional changes and court Historic Pact base voters have narrowed gaps without decisive shifts. Polarization over security policy, economic approaches, and ties to the outgoing Petro administration keeps the contest competitive, with turnout among undecided and third-place supporters likely determining final separation. Late campaign events, voter mobilization in key regions, or unexpected endorsements could still widen or compress the margin before ballots close.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновленоde la Espriella 5-10% 53%
de la Espriella 10-15% 20%
de la Espriella 0-5% 13%
Cepeda Castro Win 11%
$122,150 Обс.
$122,150 Обс.
Jun 22, 2026
de la Espriella 15%+
6%
de la Espriella 10-15%
20%
de la Espriella 5-10%
53%
de la Espriella 0-5%
13%
Cepeda Castro Win
11%
de la Espriella 5-10% 53%
de la Espriella 10-15% 20%
de la Espriella 0-5% 13%
Cepeda Castro Win 11%
$122,150 Обс.
$122,150 Обс.
Jun 22, 2026
de la Espriella 15%+
$27,532 Обс.
6%
de la Espriella 10-15%
$28,672 Обс.
20%
de la Espriella 5-10%
$25,334 Обс.
53%
de la Espriella 0-5%
$25,400 Обс.
13%
Cepeda Castro Win
$15,212 Обс.
11%
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling averages show Abelardo de la Espriella maintaining a 6-8 point lead over Iván Cepeda Castro ahead of the June 21 runoff, consistent with trader emphasis on a 5-10% victory margin. Right-wing consolidation following the May 31 first round—via endorsements from Paloma Valencia, Álvaro Uribe, and Iván Duque—has channeled conservative and centrist votes toward de la Espriella’s security-focused platform, while Cepeda’s efforts to moderate on constitutional changes and court Historic Pact base voters have narrowed gaps without decisive shifts. Polarization over security policy, economic approaches, and ties to the outgoing Petro administration keeps the contest competitive, with turnout among undecided and third-place supporters likely determining final separation. Late campaign events, voter mobilization in key regions, or unexpected endorsements could still widen or compress the margin before ballots close.
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$122,150Дата завершення
Jun 22, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling averages show Abelardo de la Espriella maintaining a 6-8 point lead over Iván Cepeda Castro ahead of the June 21 runoff, consistent with trader emphasis on a 5-10% victory margin. Right-wing consolidation following the May 31 first round—via endorsements from Paloma Valencia, Álvaro Uribe, and Iván Duque—has channeled conservative and centrist votes toward de la Espriella’s security-focused platform, while Cepeda’s efforts to moderate on constitutional changes and court Historic Pact base voters have narrowed gaps without decisive shifts. Polarization over security policy, economic approaches, and ties to the outgoing Petro administration keeps the contest competitive, with turnout among undecided and third-place supporters likely determining final separation. Late campaign events, voter mobilization in key regions, or unexpected endorsements could still widen or compress the margin before ballots close.
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Обсяг
$122,150Дата завершення
Jun 22, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages show Abelardo de la Espriella maintaining a 6-8 point lead over Iván Cepeda Castro ahead of the June 21 runoff, consistent with trader emphasis on a 5-10% victory margin. Right-wing consolidation following the May 31 first round—via endorsements from Paloma Valencia, Álvaro Uribe, and Iván Duque—has channeled conservative and centrist votes toward de la Espriella’s security-focused platform, while Cepeda’s efforts to moderate on constitutional changes and court Historic Pact base voters have narrowed gaps without decisive shifts. Polarization over security policy, economic approaches, and ties to the outgoing Petro administration keeps the contest competitive, with turnout among undecided and third-place supporters likely determining final separation. Late campaign events, voter mobilization in key regions, or unexpected endorsements could still widen or compress the margin before ballots close.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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