Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a high near 90°F for Austin on May 18, driven by persistent southerly flow ahead of a weak front and partly to mostly cloudy skies that limit overnight cooling. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, where average daily highs reach 85–87°F, though current conditions favor the upper end of that range. The 65% market-implied probability for 90°F or higher reflects trader assessment of minimal cooling from scattered thunderstorms expected during peak heating hours, while lower brackets capture the smaller chance of heavier cloud cover or earlier frontal passage reducing maximum readings. Updated short-range forecasts through the weekend continue to support this outlook with little model spread.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Austin on May 18?
Highest temperature in Austin on May 18?
90°F or higher 81%
88-89°F 19%
82-83°F 2.0%
80-81°F 1.4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 18, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
9%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
19%
90°F or higher
70%
90°F or higher 81%
88-89°F 19%
82-83°F 2.0%
80-81°F 1.4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 18, 2026
71°F or below
$164 Обс.
<1%
72-73°F
$477 Обс.
<1%
74-75°F
$277 Обс.
<1%
76-77°F
$347 Обс.
<1%
78-79°F
$71 Обс.
1%
80-81°F
$21 Обс.
1%
82-83°F
$6 Обс.
2%
84-85°F
$6 Обс.
9%
86-87°F
$6 Обс.
10%
88-89°F
$36 Обс.
19%
90°F or higher
$76 Обс.
70%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a high near 90°F for Austin on May 18, driven by persistent southerly flow ahead of a weak front and partly to mostly cloudy skies that limit overnight cooling. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, where average daily highs reach 85–87°F, though current conditions favor the upper end of that range. The 65% market-implied probability for 90°F or higher reflects trader assessment of minimal cooling from scattered thunderstorms expected during peak heating hours, while lower brackets capture the smaller chance of heavier cloud cover or earlier frontal passage reducing maximum readings. Updated short-range forecasts through the weekend continue to support this outlook with little model spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,486Дата завершення
May 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a high near 90°F for Austin on May 18, driven by persistent southerly flow ahead of a weak front and partly to mostly cloudy skies that limit overnight cooling. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, where average daily highs reach 85–87°F, though current conditions favor the upper end of that range. The 65% market-implied probability for 90°F or higher reflects trader assessment of minimal cooling from scattered thunderstorms expected during peak heating hours, while lower brackets capture the smaller chance of heavier cloud cover or earlier frontal passage reducing maximum readings. Updated short-range forecasts through the weekend continue to support this outlook with little model spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$1,486Дата завершення
May 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSRecent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a high near 90°F for Austin on May 18, driven by persistent southerly flow ahead of a weak front and partly to mostly cloudy skies that limit overnight cooling. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, where average daily highs reach 85–87°F, though current conditions favor the upper end of that range. The 65% market-implied probability for 90°F or higher reflects trader assessment of minimal cooling from scattered thunderstorms expected during peak heating hours, while lower brackets capture the smaller chance of heavier cloud cover or earlier frontal passage reducing maximum readings. Updated short-range forecasts through the weekend continue to support this outlook with little model spread.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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