Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature reaching 15°C on May 15, narrowly ahead of 14°C at 26.5% and 16°C at 13.5%, reflecting tight clustering in Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and global models like ECMWF and GFS around the mid-May climatological normal of 14.5°C. This uncertainty stems from variable overnight cloud cover inhibiting radiative cooling, light winds potentially allowing deeper chills, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect tempering lows above historical May 15 averages near 15°C. Ensemble forecasts show slight model spread due to a stable high-pressure ridge, with resolution hinging on evening observations and final JMA updates expected within hours; below 13°C or above 17°C faces steep barriers from seasonal baselines.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 15?
15°C 33%
14°C 29%
13°C 24.3%
16°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 15, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
24%
14°C
29%
15°C
33%
16°C
12%
17°C
3%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
15°C 33%
14°C 29%
13°C 24.3%
16°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 15, 2026
12°C or below
$215 Обс.
<1%
13°C
$123 Обс.
24%
14°C
$66 Обс.
29%
15°C
$114 Обс.
33%
16°C
$184 Обс.
12%
17°C
$295 Обс.
3%
18°C
$632 Обс.
1%
19°C
$393 Обс.
<1%
20°C
$333 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$499 Обс.
<1%
22°C or higher
$341 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature reaching 15°C on May 15, narrowly ahead of 14°C at 26.5% and 16°C at 13.5%, reflecting tight clustering in Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and global models like ECMWF and GFS around the mid-May climatological normal of 14.5°C. This uncertainty stems from variable overnight cloud cover inhibiting radiative cooling, light winds potentially allowing deeper chills, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect tempering lows above historical May 15 averages near 15°C. Ensemble forecasts show slight model spread due to a stable high-pressure ridge, with resolution hinging on evening observations and final JMA updates expected within hours; below 13°C or above 17°C faces steep barriers from seasonal baselines.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,041Дата завершення
May 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature reaching 15°C on May 15, narrowly ahead of 14°C at 26.5% and 16°C at 13.5%, reflecting tight clustering in Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and global models like ECMWF and GFS around the mid-May climatological normal of 14.5°C. This uncertainty stems from variable overnight cloud cover inhibiting radiative cooling, light winds potentially allowing deeper chills, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect tempering lows above historical May 15 averages near 15°C. Ensemble forecasts show slight model spread due to a stable high-pressure ridge, with resolution hinging on evening observations and final JMA updates expected within hours; below 13°C or above 17°C faces steep barriers from seasonal baselines.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$3,041Дата завершення
May 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature reaching 15°C on May 15, narrowly ahead of 14°C at 26.5% and 16°C at 13.5%, reflecting tight clustering in Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and global models like ECMWF and GFS around the mid-May climatological normal of 14.5°C. This uncertainty stems from variable overnight cloud cover inhibiting radiative cooling, light winds potentially allowing deeper chills, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect tempering lows above historical May 15 averages near 15°C. Ensemble forecasts show slight model spread due to a stable high-pressure ridge, with resolution hinging on evening observations and final JMA updates expected within hours; below 13°C or above 17°C faces steep barriers from seasonal baselines.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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