Traders assign an 86% probability against a major meteor strike of 10 kilotons or greater in 2026 because ongoing near-Earth object surveillance by NASA and partner observatories has identified no threatening asteroids or comets on collision trajectories. Recent orbital refinements from ground-based and space-based telescopes continue to show all known large objects passing safely, consistent with the historical pattern of such energetic impacts occurring only once every several decades on average. While smaller atmospheric entries happen regularly, the absence of any credible near-term risk keeps market-implied odds stable. Potential new data from wide-field surveys could still alter assessments if an undetected object emerges.