Elin Norén leads the market at 83.5% as the incumbent chair of Region Dalarna’s regional executive board since 2022, backed by the Samling för Dalarna coalition of Social Democrats, Center Party, and allies ahead of the September 13, 2026, regional council election. Traders price her continuation highly due to her established role managing regional priorities like healthcare and finances, with limited signs of coalition fracture or strong opposition momentum in recent months. Sofia Jarl (Center Party), the current first vice chair, sits at 5.1% as a potential successor within the same bloc, while Kent Ekeroth (Sweden Democrats) at 3.9% reflects his prior opposition role amid past procedural disputes but low path to the chair position. The broad field of other named candidates and the “Other” outcome at 50% each capture residual uncertainty around post-election negotiations, though primary-source reporting shows no major recent shifts in party standings or leadership announcements that would alter the current consensus.