Elaine Pelino leads the Republican primary for Rhode Island governor with trader consensus at 73 percent, driven by her positioning as a MAGA-aligned candidate appealing to conservative primary voters. A University of New Hampshire poll from June showed her at 42 percent support among likely GOP primary voters compared to Aaron Guckian at 17 percent, with nearly 40 percent undecided. Guckian, who secured the state party endorsement in June by a 72-44 convention vote, has emphasized centrism and moderation in recent debates. The September 9 primary remains weeks away, leaving room for shifts in turnout or additional candidate positioning on issues such as immigration and state party direction. Minor candidates hold negligible shares reflecting limited viability.