Recent polls ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with roughly 40 percent support while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee endorsed by his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, trails in the low-to-mid 30s. This consistent gap leaves Flávio as the clear frontrunner for second place among a fragmented field that includes low-single-digit candidates such as Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado. Trader consensus at 83.5 percent for Flávio reflects the consolidation of conservative voters behind the family name, the absence of stronger challengers on the right, and Lula’s established base that makes an upset for second place unlikely absent major late-campaign shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFlávio Bolsonaro 84%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 8.2%
Renan Santos 6.0%
Ronaldo Caiado 1.1%
$4,607,232 KL.
$4,607,232 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
84%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
8%
Renan Santos
6%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 84%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 8.2%
Renan Santos 6.0%
Ronaldo Caiado 1.1%
$4,607,232 KL.
$4,607,232 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
$251,942 KL.
84%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$227,331 KL.
8%
Renan Santos
$1,100,423 KL.
6%
Ronaldo Caiado
$353,622 KL.
1%
Romeu Zema
$299,270 KL.
<1%
Fernando Haddad
$692,351 KL.
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$133,214 KL.
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$128,809 KL.
<1%
Camilo Santana
$104,312 KL.
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
$101,410 KL.
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
$62,257 KL.
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$197,416 KL.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
$673,156 KL.
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$154,157 KL.
<1%
Eduardo Leite
$71,116 KL.
<1%
Helder Barbalho
$20,972 KL.
<1%
Tereza Cristina
$35,475 KL.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with roughly 40 percent support while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee endorsed by his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, trails in the low-to-mid 30s. This consistent gap leaves Flávio as the clear frontrunner for second place among a fragmented field that includes low-single-digit candidates such as Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado. Trader consensus at 83.5 percent for Flávio reflects the consolidation of conservative voters behind the family name, the absence of stronger challengers on the right, and Lula’s established base that makes an upset for second place unlikely absent major late-campaign shifts.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Thị trường mở: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$4,607,232Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with roughly 40 percent support while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee endorsed by his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, trails in the low-to-mid 30s. This consistent gap leaves Flávio as the clear frontrunner for second place among a fragmented field that includes low-single-digit candidates such as Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado. Trader consensus at 83.5 percent for Flávio reflects the consolidation of conservative voters behind the family name, the absence of stronger challengers on the right, and Lula’s established base that makes an upset for second place unlikely absent major late-campaign shifts.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Khối lượng
$4,607,232Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with roughly 40 percent support while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee endorsed by his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, trails in the low-to-mid 30s. This consistent gap leaves Flávio as the clear frontrunner for second place among a fragmented field that includes low-single-digit candidates such as Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado. Trader consensus at 83.5 percent for Flávio reflects the consolidation of conservative voters behind the family name, the absence of stronger challengers on the right, and Lula’s established base that makes an upset for second place unlikely absent major late-campaign shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
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Liệu Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva có giành chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử tổng thống Brazil năm 2026 không?
64%
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Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
11%
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