California’s 12th congressional district, encompassing parts of the San Francisco Bay Area, features a heavily Democratic electorate and voter registration advantage exceeding 50 points. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced two Democratic candidates—incumbent Lateefah Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce—eliminating any Republican from the November general election ballot. Simon’s dominant primary performance exceeding 80 percent reinforced the seat’s status as a safe Democratic hold. Trader consensus at 97 percent for the Democratic Party reflects this structural lock under California’s election rules, with only remote scenarios such as a candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or unprecedented turnout anomaly potentially altering the outcome before certification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$43,796 交易量
$43,796 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
97%
共和黨
2%
$43,796 交易量
$43,796 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
$26,622 交易量
97%
共和黨
$17,173 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 12th congressional district, encompassing parts of the San Francisco Bay Area, features a heavily Democratic electorate and voter registration advantage exceeding 50 points. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced two Democratic candidates—incumbent Lateefah Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce—eliminating any Republican from the November general election ballot. Simon’s dominant primary performance exceeding 80 percent reinforced the seat’s status as a safe Democratic hold. Trader consensus at 97 percent for the Democratic Party reflects this structural lock under California’s election rules, with only remote scenarios such as a candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or unprecedented turnout anomaly potentially altering the outcome before certification.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$43,796結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 12th congressional district, encompassing parts of the San Francisco Bay Area, features a heavily Democratic electorate and voter registration advantage exceeding 50 points. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced two Democratic candidates—incumbent Lateefah Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce—eliminating any Republican from the November general election ballot. Simon’s dominant primary performance exceeding 80 percent reinforced the seat’s status as a safe Democratic hold. Trader consensus at 97 percent for the Democratic Party reflects this structural lock under California’s election rules, with only remote scenarios such as a candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or unprecedented turnout anomaly potentially altering the outcome before certification.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$43,796結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 12th congressional district, encompassing parts of the San Francisco Bay Area, features a heavily Democratic electorate and voter registration advantage exceeding 50 points. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced two Democratic candidates—incumbent Lateefah Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce—eliminating any Republican from the November general election ballot. Simon’s dominant primary performance exceeding 80 percent reinforced the seat’s status as a safe Democratic hold. Trader consensus at 97 percent for the Democratic Party reflects this structural lock under California’s election rules, with only remote scenarios such as a candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or unprecedented turnout anomaly potentially altering the outcome before certification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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