Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon holds a commanding position in California's 12th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic East Bay seat with an 84.5% Democratic presidential vote share in 2024, which underpins the market's 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner on November 3. With the June 2 top-two primary three weeks away, Simon maintains a strong fundraising edge over Democratic challenger Jamie Joyce, while the sole Republican candidate has withdrawn, ensuring the general election pits two Democrats against each other in a district rated Safe Democratic by forecasters. Trader consensus reflects the district's entrenched partisan lean and incumbency advantages. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a late-breaking scandal involving both Democratic candidates, an unexpected GOP write-in effort, or a historic national Republican midterm wave large enough to overcome the area's structural Democratic majority.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$33,778 交易量
$33,778 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
94%
共和黨
6%
$33,778 交易量
$33,778 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
$20,165 交易量
94%
共和黨
$13,612 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon holds a commanding position in California's 12th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic East Bay seat with an 84.5% Democratic presidential vote share in 2024, which underpins the market's 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner on November 3. With the June 2 top-two primary three weeks away, Simon maintains a strong fundraising edge over Democratic challenger Jamie Joyce, while the sole Republican candidate has withdrawn, ensuring the general election pits two Democrats against each other in a district rated Safe Democratic by forecasters. Trader consensus reflects the district's entrenched partisan lean and incumbency advantages. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a late-breaking scandal involving both Democratic candidates, an unexpected GOP write-in effort, or a historic national Republican midterm wave large enough to overcome the area's structural Democratic majority.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$33,778結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon holds a commanding position in California's 12th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic East Bay seat with an 84.5% Democratic presidential vote share in 2024, which underpins the market's 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner on November 3. With the June 2 top-two primary three weeks away, Simon maintains a strong fundraising edge over Democratic challenger Jamie Joyce, while the sole Republican candidate has withdrawn, ensuring the general election pits two Democrats against each other in a district rated Safe Democratic by forecasters. Trader consensus reflects the district's entrenched partisan lean and incumbency advantages. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a late-breaking scandal involving both Democratic candidates, an unexpected GOP write-in effort, or a historic national Republican midterm wave large enough to overcome the area's structural Democratic majority.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$33,778結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon holds a commanding position in California's 12th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic East Bay seat with an 84.5% Democratic presidential vote share in 2024, which underpins the market's 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner on November 3. With the June 2 top-two primary three weeks away, Simon maintains a strong fundraising edge over Democratic challenger Jamie Joyce, while the sole Republican candidate has withdrawn, ensuring the general election pits two Democrats against each other in a district rated Safe Democratic by forecasters. Trader consensus reflects the district's entrenched partisan lean and incumbency advantages. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a late-breaking scandal involving both Democratic candidates, an unexpected GOP write-in effort, or a historic national Republican midterm wave large enough to overcome the area's structural Democratic majority.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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