Recent weather model consensus from European meteorological agencies shows Madrid’s daily maximum temperature stabilizing at 22°C under stable springtime high-pressure conditions and moderate Atlantic airflow. Official surface observations through midday confirm readings hovering near this threshold without significant warming trends, aligning with historical May averages for the region. Traders have priced this outcome at essentially 100 percent implied probability because no intensification factors—such as clearer skies or warmer advection—are present in the latest runs. Only an unexpected late-day shift in local wind patterns or station-specific microclimate effects could push the official high above 22°C, an outcome the current data render highly improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日馬德裏氣溫最高?
22°C 100.0%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$58,568 交易量
$58,568 交易量
22°C
100%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 100.0%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$58,568 交易量
$58,568 交易量
22°C
100%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent weather model consensus from European meteorological agencies shows Madrid’s daily maximum temperature stabilizing at 22°C under stable springtime high-pressure conditions and moderate Atlantic airflow. Official surface observations through midday confirm readings hovering near this threshold without significant warming trends, aligning with historical May averages for the region. Traders have priced this outcome at essentially 100 percent implied probability because no intensification factors—such as clearer skies or warmer advection—are present in the latest runs. Only an unexpected late-day shift in local wind patterns or station-specific microclimate effects could push the official high above 22°C, an outcome the current data render highly improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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