Recent European model guidance, particularly from the ECMWF ensemble, points to a maximum of 20–21°C in Milan on May 18 under a stable high-pressure regime across the Po Valley. Light variable winds and limited cloud cover are expected to allow modest daytime heating near the May climatological average of 22°C, which explains the near-even market-implied odds favoring those two outcomes. Ensemble spread remains driven by small uncertainties in boundary-layer moisture and peak solar insolation, keeping probabilities clustered between 19–22°C. Updated model runs and official observations from Malpensa Airport tomorrow will resolve the precise peak.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月18日米蘭的最高溫度?
20°C 37%
21°C 36%
19°C 14%
22°C 12%
$13,164 交易量
$13,164 交易量
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
14%
20°C
37%
21°C
36%
22°C
12%
23°C
3%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
20°C 37%
21°C 36%
19°C 14%
22°C 12%
$13,164 交易量
$13,164 交易量
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
14%
20°C
37%
21°C
36%
22°C
12%
23°C
3%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent European model guidance, particularly from the ECMWF ensemble, points to a maximum of 20–21°C in Milan on May 18 under a stable high-pressure regime across the Po Valley. Light variable winds and limited cloud cover are expected to allow modest daytime heating near the May climatological average of 22°C, which explains the near-even market-implied odds favoring those two outcomes. Ensemble spread remains driven by small uncertainties in boundary-layer moisture and peak solar insolation, keeping probabilities clustered between 19–22°C. Updated model runs and official observations from Malpensa Airport tomorrow will resolve the precise peak.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions