Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models converge tightly on a daytime maximum near 16°C for Munich on May 17, reflecting a cool polar air mass with limited solar heating under partly cloudy skies and light winds. This positioning aligns with Deutscher Wetterdienst observations and historical May baselines around 18°C that are currently suppressed by persistent upper-level troughing and weak advection. Trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability for exactly 16°C captures this strong model agreement, though realistic deviations could arise from faster afternoon clearing that boosts shortwave radiation or a slight warm-sector advance pushing readings to 17°C before sunset. Hourly DWD airport data and final daily maximum reports will confirm resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日慕尼黑最高溫度?
16°C 99.7%
17°C <1%
19°C <1%
21°C or higher <1%
$45,194 交易量
$45,194 交易量
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
100%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
16°C 99.7%
17°C <1%
19°C <1%
21°C or higher <1%
$45,194 交易量
$45,194 交易量
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
100%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models converge tightly on a daytime maximum near 16°C for Munich on May 17, reflecting a cool polar air mass with limited solar heating under partly cloudy skies and light winds. This positioning aligns with Deutscher Wetterdienst observations and historical May baselines around 18°C that are currently suppressed by persistent upper-level troughing and weak advection. Trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability for exactly 16°C captures this strong model agreement, though realistic deviations could arise from faster afternoon clearing that boosts shortwave radiation or a slight warm-sector advance pushing readings to 17°C before sunset. Hourly DWD airport data and final daily maximum reports will confirm resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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