Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise anchors the strong trader consensus favoring his party in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, a seat he has held since 2008 with consistent strong margins including 66.8 percent in 2024. The district's suburban New Orleans base and post-redistricting map, finalized after the May 2026 legislative action following the Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, maintain its partisan tilt. Scalise's role as House Majority Leader, combined with established fundraising and endorsements, outweighs primary challenges from Randall Arrington and Democratic candidate Lauren Jewett. Louisiana's November 3, 2026 jungle primary structure further supports the current pricing. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could still shift probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$49,108 交易量
$49,108 交易量
2026-11-03
共和黨
94%
民主黨
6%
$49,108 交易量
$49,108 交易量
2026-11-03
共和黨
$21,178 交易量
94%
民主黨
$27,930 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise anchors the strong trader consensus favoring his party in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, a seat he has held since 2008 with consistent strong margins including 66.8 percent in 2024. The district's suburban New Orleans base and post-redistricting map, finalized after the May 2026 legislative action following the Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, maintain its partisan tilt. Scalise's role as House Majority Leader, combined with established fundraising and endorsements, outweighs primary challenges from Randall Arrington and Democratic candidate Lauren Jewett. Louisiana's November 3, 2026 jungle primary structure further supports the current pricing. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could still shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$49,108結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise anchors the strong trader consensus favoring his party in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, a seat he has held since 2008 with consistent strong margins including 66.8 percent in 2024. The district's suburban New Orleans base and post-redistricting map, finalized after the May 2026 legislative action following the Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, maintain its partisan tilt. Scalise's role as House Majority Leader, combined with established fundraising and endorsements, outweighs primary challenges from Randall Arrington and Democratic candidate Lauren Jewett. Louisiana's November 3, 2026 jungle primary structure further supports the current pricing. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could still shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$49,108結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise anchors the strong trader consensus favoring his party in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, a seat he has held since 2008 with consistent strong margins including 66.8 percent in 2024. The district's suburban New Orleans base and post-redistricting map, finalized after the May 2026 legislative action following the Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, maintain its partisan tilt. Scalise's role as House Majority Leader, combined with established fundraising and endorsements, outweighs primary challenges from Randall Arrington and Democratic candidate Lauren Jewett. Louisiana's November 3, 2026 jungle primary structure further supports the current pricing. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could still shift probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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