Recent numerical weather prediction model runs from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid's overnight minimum on August 26 will likely settle in the 15–17 °C range, reflecting a typical late-summer radiative cooling pattern under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow. Ensemble spreads arise from uncertainties in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which can alter minimums by 1–2 °C, while the urban heat island effect keeps city-center readings slightly above rural baselines. Historical climatology shows average August lows near 17 °C, with occasional dips below 15 °C under clearer, calmer conditions. Updated model guidance issued in the past 24 hours has narrowed the range without shifting the central tendency, leaving closely matched market-implied probabilities around 14–18 °C as traders weigh the latest 00Z and 12Z runs ahead of final verification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月26日馬德裏最低氣溫？
8月26日馬德裏最低氣溫？
14°C or below 33%
17°C 31%
16°C 28%
18°C 27%
最新
最新
2026-08-26
14°C or below
33%
15°C
25%
16°C
28%
17°C
31%
18°C
27%
19°C
22%
20°C
25%
21°C
3%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
1%
14°C or below 33%
17°C 31%
16°C 28%
18°C 27%
最新
最新
2026-08-26
14°C or below
$0 交易量
33%
15°C
$6 交易量
25%
16°C
$0 交易量
28%
17°C
$0 交易量
31%
18°C
$0 交易量
27%
19°C
$0 交易量
22%
20°C
$0 交易量
25%
21°C
$445 交易量
3%
22°C
$5 交易量
1%
23°C
$5 交易量
1%
24°C or higher
$135 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction model runs from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid's overnight minimum on August 26 will likely settle in the 15–17 °C range, reflecting a typical late-summer radiative cooling pattern under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow. Ensemble spreads arise from uncertainties in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which can alter minimums by 1–2 °C, while the urban heat island effect keeps city-center readings slightly above rural baselines. Historical climatology shows average August lows near 17 °C, with occasional dips below 15 °C under clearer, calmer conditions. Updated model guidance issued in the past 24 hours has narrowed the range without shifting the central tendency, leaving closely matched market-implied probabilities around 14–18 °C as traders weigh the latest 00Z and 12Z runs ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$596結束日期
2026-08-26市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction model runs from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid's overnight minimum on August 26 will likely settle in the 15–17 °C range, reflecting a typical late-summer radiative cooling pattern under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow. Ensemble spreads arise from uncertainties in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which can alter minimums by 1–2 °C, while the urban heat island effect keeps city-center readings slightly above rural baselines. Historical climatology shows average August lows near 17 °C, with occasional dips below 15 °C under clearer, calmer conditions. Updated model guidance issued in the past 24 hours has narrowed the range without shifting the central tendency, leaving closely matched market-implied probabilities around 14–18 °C as traders weigh the latest 00Z and 12Z runs ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$596結束日期
2026-08-26市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent numerical weather prediction model runs from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid's overnight minimum on August 26 will likely settle in the 15–17 °C range, reflecting a typical late-summer radiative cooling pattern under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow. Ensemble spreads arise from uncertainties in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which can alter minimums by 1–2 °C, while the urban heat island effect keeps city-center readings slightly above rural baselines. Historical climatology shows average August lows near 17 °C, with occasional dips below 15 °C under clearer, calmer conditions. Updated model guidance issued in the past 24 hours has narrowed the range without shifting the central tendency, leaving closely matched market-implied probabilities around 14–18 °C as traders weigh the latest 00Z and 12Z runs ahead of final verification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions