Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate overnight lows in Shenzhen around 24–27°C for September 22, driven by persistent monsoon moisture, scattered thunderstorms, and elevated humidity that limit radiative cooling after sunset. Cloud cover and light winds further suppress temperature drops compared to clearer conditions typical of the season. Historical September averages place nighttime minima near 24–26°C, but current atmospheric setup with potential for heavier rain could push the observed low toward 27°C, aligning with the market’s leading 44.5% implied probability. Uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity keeps the 32°C-or-higher outcome at 38.5%, as drier pockets or stronger southerly flow could reduce cooling. Updated model runs and official observations from the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月22日深圳最低溫度？
9月22日深圳最低溫度？
32°C或以上 91%
22°C或以下 71%
27°C 44%
28°C 39%
最新
最新
2026-09-22
22°C或以下
71%
23°C
16%
24°C
24%
25°C
35%
26°C
25%
27°C
44%
28°C
39%
29°C
3%
30°C
16%
31°C
13%
32°C或以上
91%
32°C或以上 91%
22°C或以下 71%
27°C 44%
28°C 39%
最新
最新
2026-09-22
22°C或以下
$0 交易量
71%
23°C
$0 交易量
16%
24°C
$0 交易量
24%
25°C
$0 交易量
35%
26°C
$0 交易量
25%
27°C
$10 交易量
44%
28°C
$0 交易量
39%
29°C
$0 交易量
3%
30°C
$0 交易量
16%
31°C
$0 交易量
13%
32°C或以上
$0 交易量
91%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate overnight lows in Shenzhen around 24–27°C for September 22, driven by persistent monsoon moisture, scattered thunderstorms, and elevated humidity that limit radiative cooling after sunset. Cloud cover and light winds further suppress temperature drops compared to clearer conditions typical of the season. Historical September averages place nighttime minima near 24–26°C, but current atmospheric setup with potential for heavier rain could push the observed low toward 27°C, aligning with the market’s leading 44.5% implied probability. Uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity keeps the 32°C-or-higher outcome at 38.5%, as drier pockets or stronger southerly flow could reduce cooling. Updated model runs and official observations from the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
交易量
$10結束日期
2026-09-22市場開放時間
Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate overnight lows in Shenzhen around 24–27°C for September 22, driven by persistent monsoon moisture, scattered thunderstorms, and elevated humidity that limit radiative cooling after sunset. Cloud cover and light winds further suppress temperature drops compared to clearer conditions typical of the season. Historical September averages place nighttime minima near 24–26°C, but current atmospheric setup with potential for heavier rain could push the observed low toward 27°C, aligning with the market’s leading 44.5% implied probability. Uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity keeps the 32°C-or-higher outcome at 38.5%, as drier pockets or stronger southerly flow could reduce cooling. Updated model runs and official observations from the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$10結束日期
2026-09-22市場開放時間
Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ETRecent forecasts from multiple models indicate overnight lows in Shenzhen around 24–27°C for September 22, driven by persistent monsoon moisture, scattered thunderstorms, and elevated humidity that limit radiative cooling after sunset. Cloud cover and light winds further suppress temperature drops compared to clearer conditions typical of the season. Historical September averages place nighttime minima near 24–26°C, but current atmospheric setup with potential for heavier rain could push the observed low toward 27°C, aligning with the market’s leading 44.5% implied probability. Uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity keeps the 32°C-or-higher outcome at 38.5%, as drier pockets or stronger southerly flow could reduce cooling. Updated model runs and official observations from the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions