Persistent northeasterly flow and widespread heavy rainfall across the Kanto region have suppressed daytime heating while limiting overnight radiative cooling, anchoring Tokyo's expected minimum near 19–20 °C on 16 September. Multiple GFS-based and official guidance runs converge on an overnight low of 19–20 °C under overcast skies and 90 %+ rain probabilities, consistent with the current market-implied probabilities clustering at those two outcomes. Light-to-moderate winds off the ocean add modest marine moderation, while the absence of clear-sky breaks overnight reduces the chance of a dip below 19 °C or a rebound above 21 °C. Updated model runs and Japan Meteorological Agency observations through the evening will determine whether the final recorded minimum settles at 19 °C or 20 °C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月16日東京最低溫度？
9月16日東京最低溫度？
18°C 47%
17°C 11%
22°C 1%
16°C或以下 <1%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
16°C或以下
<1%
17°C
11%
18°C
47%
19°C
42%
20°C
44%
21°C
37%
22°C
20%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C或更高
<1%
18°C 47%
17°C 11%
22°C 1%
16°C或以下 <1%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
16°C或以下
$56 交易量
<1%
17°C
$122 交易量
11%
18°C
$125 交易量
47%
19°C
$969 交易量
42%
20°C
$920 交易量
44%
21°C
$1,350 交易量
37%
22°C
$240 交易量
20%
23°C
$16 交易量
<1%
24°C
$188 交易量
<1%
25°C
$489 交易量
<1%
26°C或更高
$188 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent northeasterly flow and widespread heavy rainfall across the Kanto region have suppressed daytime heating while limiting overnight radiative cooling, anchoring Tokyo's expected minimum near 19–20 °C on 16 September. Multiple GFS-based and official guidance runs converge on an overnight low of 19–20 °C under overcast skies and 90 %+ rain probabilities, consistent with the current market-implied probabilities clustering at those two outcomes. Light-to-moderate winds off the ocean add modest marine moderation, while the absence of clear-sky breaks overnight reduces the chance of a dip below 19 °C or a rebound above 21 °C. Updated model runs and Japan Meteorological Agency observations through the evening will determine whether the final recorded minimum settles at 19 °C or 20 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$4,663結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent northeasterly flow and widespread heavy rainfall across the Kanto region have suppressed daytime heating while limiting overnight radiative cooling, anchoring Tokyo's expected minimum near 19–20 °C on 16 September. Multiple GFS-based and official guidance runs converge on an overnight low of 19–20 °C under overcast skies and 90 %+ rain probabilities, consistent with the current market-implied probabilities clustering at those two outcomes. Light-to-moderate winds off the ocean add modest marine moderation, while the absence of clear-sky breaks overnight reduces the chance of a dip below 19 °C or a rebound above 21 °C. Updated model runs and Japan Meteorological Agency observations through the evening will determine whether the final recorded minimum settles at 19 °C or 20 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$4,663結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETPersistent northeasterly flow and widespread heavy rainfall across the Kanto region have suppressed daytime heating while limiting overnight radiative cooling, anchoring Tokyo's expected minimum near 19–20 °C on 16 September. Multiple GFS-based and official guidance runs converge on an overnight low of 19–20 °C under overcast skies and 90 %+ rain probabilities, consistent with the current market-implied probabilities clustering at those two outcomes. Light-to-moderate winds off the ocean add modest marine moderation, while the absence of clear-sky breaks overnight reduces the chance of a dip below 19 °C or a rebound above 21 °C. Updated model runs and Japan Meteorological Agency observations through the evening will determine whether the final recorded minimum settles at 19 °C or 20 °C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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