Recent forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and European models indicate Warsaw nighttime lows near 12–15°C on August 22, with some guidance dipping toward 9–11°C under clear skies and light winds that enhance radiative cooling. This supports the market's emphasis on 10°C or below (38.5% implied probability) and the cluster around 12–14°C, as a passing trough or northerly flow can advect cooler maritime air while reducing cloud cover. Late-August climatology already features declining solar angles and average minima near 13°C, but recent model runs highlight variability from frontal timing and boundary-layer moisture. Traders appear to weigh these uncertainties heavily, with lower probabilities assigned to warmer outcomes above 16°C absent strong high-pressure suppression of cooling. Updated ECMWF or GFS runs ahead of the date will likely refine the minimum threshold most relevant for resolution.