Incumbent Summer Lee secured the Democratic nomination for Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district in the May 2026 primary with over 81 percent of the vote, facing Republican James Hayes in the November general election. The district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in prior election margins and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe Democratic, underpins trader consensus favoring the incumbent at 94.5 percent implied probability. Limited recent developments, including routine fundraising patterns and absence of competitive polling shifts, reinforce this positioning ahead of the general election. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected national partisan swing, late-breaking candidate controversies, or unusually high Republican turnout in suburban or rural portions of the district, though structural and historical factors make such shifts improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$16,370 交易量
$16,370 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
95%
共和黨
4%
$16,370 交易量
$16,370 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$11,679 交易量
95%
共和黨
$4,691 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Summer Lee secured the Democratic nomination for Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district in the May 2026 primary with over 81 percent of the vote, facing Republican James Hayes in the November general election. The district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in prior election margins and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe Democratic, underpins trader consensus favoring the incumbent at 94.5 percent implied probability. Limited recent developments, including routine fundraising patterns and absence of competitive polling shifts, reinforce this positioning ahead of the general election. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected national partisan swing, late-breaking candidate controversies, or unusually high Republican turnout in suburban or rural portions of the district, though structural and historical factors make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$16,370結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Summer Lee secured the Democratic nomination for Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district in the May 2026 primary with over 81 percent of the vote, facing Republican James Hayes in the November general election. The district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in prior election margins and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe Democratic, underpins trader consensus favoring the incumbent at 94.5 percent implied probability. Limited recent developments, including routine fundraising patterns and absence of competitive polling shifts, reinforce this positioning ahead of the general election. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected national partisan swing, late-breaking candidate controversies, or unusually high Republican turnout in suburban or rural portions of the district, though structural and historical factors make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$16,370結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Summer Lee secured the Democratic nomination for Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district in the May 2026 primary with over 81 percent of the vote, facing Republican James Hayes in the November general election. The district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in prior election margins and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe Democratic, underpins trader consensus favoring the incumbent at 94.5 percent implied probability. Limited recent developments, including routine fundraising patterns and absence of competitive polling shifts, reinforce this positioning ahead of the general election. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected national partisan swing, late-breaking candidate controversies, or unusually high Republican turnout in suburban or rural portions of the district, though structural and historical factors make such shifts improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions