Persistent El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development through mid-August 2026, yielding only three named tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—none of which reached the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson threshold for hurricane status. Official NOAA updates maintain a below-normal seasonal outlook of 7–13 named storms and 2–6 hurricanes, citing reduced vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air that limit rapid intensification. With the climatological peak approaching in early September, trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (41%) to Dolly as the next system likely to organize and strengthen first, followed by Edouard (24.5%), while later names reflect uncertainty over steering patterns and model consensus from NHC and NOAA forecasts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Dolly 41%
Edouard 25%
Fay 12%
伊薩亞斯 7.1%
最新
最新
2026-12-01
Cristobal
2%
Dolly
41%
Edouard
25%
Fay
12%
Gonzalo
5%
哈娜
5%
伊薩亞斯
7%
約瑟芬
5%
Kyle
3%
Leah
3%
Marco
5%
娜娜
5%
奧馬爾
5%
Paulette
5%
Rene
5%
Sally
3%
Teddy
5%
Vicky
4%
Wilfred
4%
其他
4%
Dolly 41%
Edouard 25%
Fay 12%
伊薩亞斯 7.1%
最新
最新
2026-12-01
Cristobal
$1,667 交易量
2%
Dolly
$383 交易量
41%
Edouard
$1,073 交易量
25%
Fay
$534 交易量
12%
Gonzalo
$472 交易量
5%
哈娜
$98 交易量
5%
伊薩亞斯
$350 交易量
7%
約瑟芬
$55 交易量
5%
Kyle
$94 交易量
3%
Leah
$59 交易量
3%
Marco
$111 交易量
5%
娜娜
$51 交易量
5%
奧馬爾
$67 交易量
5%
Paulette
$71 交易量
5%
Rene
$63 交易量
5%
Sally
$131 交易量
3%
Teddy
$63 交易量
5%
Vicky
$90 交易量
4%
Wilfred
$118 交易量
4%
其他
$63 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. Persistent El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development through mid-August 2026, yielding only three named tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—none of which reached the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson threshold for hurricane status. Official NOAA updates maintain a below-normal seasonal outlook of 7–13 named storms and 2–6 hurricanes, citing reduced vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air that limit rapid intensification. With the climatological peak approaching in early September, trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (41%) to Dolly as the next system likely to organize and strengthen first, followed by Edouard (24.5%), while later names reflect uncertainty over steering patterns and model consensus from NHC and NOAA forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
市場開放時間： Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
交易量
$5,615結束日期
2026-12-02市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. Persistent El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development through mid-August 2026, yielding only three named tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—none of which reached the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson threshold for hurricane status. Official NOAA updates maintain a below-normal seasonal outlook of 7–13 named storms and 2–6 hurricanes, citing reduced vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air that limit rapid intensification. With the climatological peak approaching in early September, trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (41%) to Dolly as the next system likely to organize and strengthen first, followed by Edouard (24.5%), while later names reflect uncertainty over steering patterns and model consensus from NHC and NOAA forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
交易量
$5,615結束日期
2026-12-02市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development through mid-August 2026, yielding only three named tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—none of which reached the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson threshold for hurricane status. Official NOAA updates maintain a below-normal seasonal outlook of 7–13 named storms and 2–6 hurricanes, citing reduced vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air that limit rapid intensification. With the climatological peak approaching in early September, trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (41%) to Dolly as the next system likely to organize and strengthen first, followed by Edouard (24.5%), while later names reflect uncertainty over steering patterns and model consensus from NHC and NOAA forecasts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions