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icon for 2026年颶風季大西洋第一場颶風的名稱是什麼？
氣候與科學·天氣

2026年颶風季大西洋第一場颶風的名稱是什麼？

icon for 2026年颶風季大西洋第一場颶風的名稱是什麼？
氣候與科學·天氣

2026年颶風季大西洋第一場颶風的名稱是什麼？

Dolly 41%

Edouard 25%

Fay 21%

伊薩亞斯 7.1%

Polymarket
最新

Dolly 41%

Edouard 25%

Fay 21%

伊薩亞斯 7.1%

Polymarket
最新

Cristobal

$1,667 交易量

2%

Dolly

$383 交易量

41%

Edouard

$1,073 交易量

25%

Fay

$514 交易量

16%

Gonzalo

$472 交易量

4%

哈娜

$98 交易量

5%

伊薩亞斯

$350 交易量

7%

約瑟芬

$55 交易量

5%

Kyle

$94 交易量

3%

Leah

$59 交易量

4%

Marco

$111 交易量

5%

娜娜

$51 交易量

5%

奧馬爾

$67 交易量

5%

Paulette

$71 交易量

5%

Rene

$63 交易量

5%

Sally

$131 交易量

3%

Teddy

$63 交易量

5%

Vicky

$90 交易量

4%

Wilfred

$118 交易量

4%

其他

$63 交易量

4%

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The absence of any Atlantic hurricanes through mid-August 2026, following only Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and the recently dissipated Cristobal, drives market-implied odds favoring Dolly at 41%. NOAA’s updated outlook for a below-normal season (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes) reflects suppressed activity linked to atmospheric conditions that limit rapid intensification. With peak months ahead, the next named systems—Dolly, Edouard, Fay, and Gonzalo—face the highest near-term probability of reaching sustained winds of 74 mph or greater on the Saffir-Simpson scale, especially if steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures allow development before later names form. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center continue issuing regular model updates that traders monitor for shifts in genesis timing and intensity potential.

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
交易量
$5,595
結束日期
2026-12-02
市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The absence of any Atlantic hurricanes through mid-August 2026, following only Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and the recently dissipated Cristobal, drives market-implied odds favoring Dolly at 41%. NOAA’s updated outlook for a below-normal season (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes) reflects suppressed activity linked to atmospheric conditions that limit rapid intensification. With peak months ahead, the next named systems—Dolly, Edouard, Fay, and Gonzalo—face the highest near-term probability of reaching sustained winds of 74 mph or greater on the Saffir-Simpson scale, especially if steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures allow development before later names form. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center continue issuing regular model updates that traders monitor for shifts in genesis timing and intensity potential.

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
交易量
$5,595
結束日期
2026-12-02
市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年颶風季大西洋第一場颶風的名稱是什麼？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Dolly" at 41%, followed by "Edouard" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"2026年颶風季大西洋第一場颶風的名稱是什麼？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "2026年颶風季大西洋第一場颶風的名稱是什麼？," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年颶風季大西洋第一場颶風的名稱是什麼？" is "Dolly" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Edouard" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年颶風季大西洋第一場颶風的名稱是什麼？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.