Below-normal Atlantic conditions driven by persistent El Niño effects have suppressed 2026 activity, with only three tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal) forming through mid-August and zero hurricanes. NOAA’s August 6 update lowered seasonal expectations to 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes, citing unfavorable wind shear and atmospheric stability that hinder rapid intensification. The National Hurricane Center’s current tropical weather outlook shows disorganized disturbances with low development odds over the next seven days, leaving limited time for any system to organize, strengthen to hurricane intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and track toward U.S. landfall before August 31. This combination of verified low early-season metrics, model consensus on continued suppression, and the narrow remaining window underpins the market’s strong “No” consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於颶風會在8月登陸美國嗎？
颶風會在8月登陸美國嗎？
是
13% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-01
是
13% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-01
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.Below-normal Atlantic conditions driven by persistent El Niño effects have suppressed 2026 activity, with only three tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal) forming through mid-August and zero hurricanes. NOAA’s August 6 update lowered seasonal expectations to 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes, citing unfavorable wind shear and atmospheric stability that hinder rapid intensification. The National Hurricane Center’s current tropical weather outlook shows disorganized disturbances with low development odds over the next seven days, leaving limited time for any system to organize, strengthen to hurricane intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and track toward U.S. landfall before August 31. This combination of verified low early-season metrics, model consensus on continued suppression, and the narrow remaining window underpins the market’s strong “No” consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
市場開放時間： Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
交易量
$1,065結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.Below-normal Atlantic conditions driven by persistent El Niño effects have suppressed 2026 activity, with only three tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal) forming through mid-August and zero hurricanes. NOAA’s August 6 update lowered seasonal expectations to 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes, citing unfavorable wind shear and atmospheric stability that hinder rapid intensification. The National Hurricane Center’s current tropical weather outlook shows disorganized disturbances with low development odds over the next seven days, leaving limited time for any system to organize, strengthen to hurricane intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and track toward U.S. landfall before August 31. This combination of verified low early-season metrics, model consensus on continued suppression, and the narrow remaining window underpins the market’s strong “No” consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
交易量
$1,065結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Below-normal Atlantic conditions driven by persistent El Niño effects have suppressed 2026 activity, with only three tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal) forming through mid-August and zero hurricanes. NOAA’s August 6 update lowered seasonal expectations to 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes, citing unfavorable wind shear and atmospheric stability that hinder rapid intensification. The National Hurricane Center’s current tropical weather outlook shows disorganized disturbances with low development odds over the next seven days, leaving limited time for any system to organize, strengthen to hurricane intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and track toward U.S. landfall before August 31. This combination of verified low early-season metrics, model consensus on continued suppression, and the narrow remaining window underpins the market’s strong “No” consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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