The low annual frequency of 5-kiloton-scale bolides—historically around 0.2 to 0.5 events per year globally—underpins the 57.5% market-implied odds favoring no strike in 2026. No qualifying airburst has occurred through mid-May, with the largest reported fireball (March 17 over Ohio) releasing only 0.25 kt according to American Meteor Society and CNEOS data. NASA’s Sentry monitoring and infrasound networks confirm no near-Earth objects larger than a few meters on collision trajectories, while recent close approaches like asteroid 2026 JH2 remain safely distant. Traders weigh this against the inherent uncertainty of undetected small impactors, with resolution hinging on year-end fireball observations from satellite and ground-based systems.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$300,653 交易量
$300,653 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$300,653 交易量
$300,653 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The low annual frequency of 5-kiloton-scale bolides—historically around 0.2 to 0.5 events per year globally—underpins the 57.5% market-implied odds favoring no strike in 2026. No qualifying airburst has occurred through mid-May, with the largest reported fireball (March 17 over Ohio) releasing only 0.25 kt according to American Meteor Society and CNEOS data. NASA’s Sentry monitoring and infrasound networks confirm no near-Earth objects larger than a few meters on collision trajectories, while recent close approaches like asteroid 2026 JH2 remain safely distant. Traders weigh this against the inherent uncertainty of undetected small impactors, with resolution hinging on year-end fireball observations from satellite and ground-based systems.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
交易量
$300,653结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The low annual frequency of 5-kiloton-scale bolides—historically around 0.2 to 0.5 events per year globally—underpins the 57.5% market-implied odds favoring no strike in 2026. No qualifying airburst has occurred through mid-May, with the largest reported fireball (March 17 over Ohio) releasing only 0.25 kt according to American Meteor Society and CNEOS data. NASA’s Sentry monitoring and infrasound networks confirm no near-Earth objects larger than a few meters on collision trajectories, while recent close approaches like asteroid 2026 JH2 remain safely distant. Traders weigh this against the inherent uncertainty of undetected small impactors, with resolution hinging on year-end fireball observations from satellite and ground-based systems.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$300,653结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The low annual frequency of 5-kiloton-scale bolides—historically around 0.2 to 0.5 events per year globally—underpins the 57.5% market-implied odds favoring no strike in 2026. No qualifying airburst has occurred through mid-May, with the largest reported fireball (March 17 over Ohio) releasing only 0.25 kt according to American Meteor Society and CNEOS data. NASA’s Sentry monitoring and infrasound networks confirm no near-Earth objects larger than a few meters on collision trajectories, while recent close approaches like asteroid 2026 JH2 remain safely distant. Traders weigh this against the inherent uncertainty of undetected small impactors, with resolution hinging on year-end fireball observations from satellite and ground-based systems.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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