No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, per NASA CNEOS Sentry and ESA monitoring, which underpins the market's 74% implied probability for "No." Recent confirmed bolides, including those tracked over populated regions, have registered well below the energy threshold on the JPL Fireball repository, while small impactors discovered hours before entry remain under 10 meters and produce sub-5 kt events. Historical flux studies indicate meter-scale objects deliver roughly 5 kt annually on average, yet the absence of precursors and refined orbital data for 2026 reduce the single-year odds, with traders weighting ongoing surveillance and safe close approaches more heavily than long-term base rates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
26% 概率
$312,629 交易量
$312,629 交易量
2026-12-31
是
26% 概率
$312,629 交易量
$312,629 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, per NASA CNEOS Sentry and ESA monitoring, which underpins the market's 74% implied probability for "No." Recent confirmed bolides, including those tracked over populated regions, have registered well below the energy threshold on the JPL Fireball repository, while small impactors discovered hours before entry remain under 10 meters and produce sub-5 kt events. Historical flux studies indicate meter-scale objects deliver roughly 5 kt annually on average, yet the absence of precursors and refined orbital data for 2026 reduce the single-year odds, with traders weighting ongoing surveillance and safe close approaches more heavily than long-term base rates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
交易量
$312,629结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, per NASA CNEOS Sentry and ESA monitoring, which underpins the market's 74% implied probability for "No." Recent confirmed bolides, including those tracked over populated regions, have registered well below the energy threshold on the JPL Fireball repository, while small impactors discovered hours before entry remain under 10 meters and produce sub-5 kt events. Historical flux studies indicate meter-scale objects deliver roughly 5 kt annually on average, yet the absence of precursors and refined orbital data for 2026 reduce the single-year odds, with traders weighting ongoing surveillance and safe close approaches more heavily than long-term base rates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$312,629结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETNo known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, per NASA CNEOS Sentry and ESA monitoring, which underpins the market's 74% implied probability for "No." Recent confirmed bolides, including those tracked over populated regions, have registered well below the energy threshold on the JPL Fireball repository, while small impactors discovered hours before entry remain under 10 meters and produce sub-5 kt events. Historical flux studies indicate meter-scale objects deliver roughly 5 kt annually on average, yet the absence of precursors and refined orbital data for 2026 reduce the single-year odds, with traders weighting ongoing surveillance and safe close approaches more heavily than long-term base rates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题