Arizona's 2026 gubernatorial contest between Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs and Republican nominee Andy Biggs remains closely contested in trader assessments of victory margins, with recent polling averages placing Hobbs ahead by roughly 5 points in a state that swung narrowly in prior cycles. Hobbs secured her nomination unopposed while Biggs consolidated Republican support after his July primary victory, yet both candidates' paths hinge on swing voter turnout in Maricopa County and suburban areas. Hobbs' potential selection of a Republican running mate such as former Mesa Mayor John Giles is viewed as a factor that could broaden crossover appeal, while Biggs' choice of Sine Kerr and Trump endorsement align with base mobilization strategies. Limited shifts in polling since the primary, combined with Arizona's history of single-digit gubernatorial margins, sustain expectations for a competitive outcome through November, with any late-cycle economic indicators, debate performances, or national political developments likely to influence final spreads.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Democrat 9-12% 22%
Democrat 6-9% 21%
Democrat 3-6% 15%
Democrat 0-3% 12%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
Republican 6%+
2%
Republican 3-6%
2%
Republican 0-3%
10%
Democrat 0-3%
12%
Democrat 3-6%
15%
Democrat 6-9%
21%
Democrat 9-12%
22%
Democrat 12-15%
10%
Democrat 15-18%
7%
Democrat 18%+
9%
Democrat 9-12% 22%
Democrat 6-9% 21%
Democrat 3-6% 15%
Democrat 0-3% 12%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
Republican 6%+
$119 交易量
2%
Republican 3-6%
$79 交易量
2%
Republican 0-3%
$107 交易量
10%
Democrat 0-3%
$293 交易量
12%
Democrat 3-6%
$930 交易量
15%
Democrat 6-9%
$222 交易量
21%
Democrat 9-12%
$119 交易量
22%
Democrat 12-15%
$52 交易量
10%
Democrat 15-18%
$72 交易量
7%
Democrat 18%+
$314 交易量
9%
The 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Arizona's 2026 gubernatorial contest between Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs and Republican nominee Andy Biggs remains closely contested in trader assessments of victory margins, with recent polling averages placing Hobbs ahead by roughly 5 points in a state that swung narrowly in prior cycles. Hobbs secured her nomination unopposed while Biggs consolidated Republican support after his July primary victory, yet both candidates' paths hinge on swing voter turnout in Maricopa County and suburban areas. Hobbs' potential selection of a Republican running mate such as former Mesa Mayor John Giles is viewed as a factor that could broaden crossover appeal, while Biggs' choice of Sine Kerr and Trump endorsement align with base mobilization strategies. Limited shifts in polling since the primary, combined with Arizona's history of single-digit gubernatorial margins, sustain expectations for a competitive outcome through November, with any late-cycle economic indicators, debate performances, or national political developments likely to influence final spreads.
The 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 5, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
交易量
$2,309结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 5, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Arizona's 2026 gubernatorial contest between Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs and Republican nominee Andy Biggs remains closely contested in trader assessments of victory margins, with recent polling averages placing Hobbs ahead by roughly 5 points in a state that swung narrowly in prior cycles. Hobbs secured her nomination unopposed while Biggs consolidated Republican support after his July primary victory, yet both candidates' paths hinge on swing voter turnout in Maricopa County and suburban areas. Hobbs' potential selection of a Republican running mate such as former Mesa Mayor John Giles is viewed as a factor that could broaden crossover appeal, while Biggs' choice of Sine Kerr and Trump endorsement align with base mobilization strategies. Limited shifts in polling since the primary, combined with Arizona's history of single-digit gubernatorial margins, sustain expectations for a competitive outcome through November, with any late-cycle economic indicators, debate performances, or national political developments likely to influence final spreads.
The 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,309结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 5, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Arizona's 2026 gubernatorial contest between Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs and Republican nominee Andy Biggs remains closely contested in trader assessments of victory margins, with recent polling averages placing Hobbs ahead by roughly 5 points in a state that swung narrowly in prior cycles. Hobbs secured her nomination unopposed while Biggs consolidated Republican support after his July primary victory, yet both candidates' paths hinge on swing voter turnout in Maricopa County and suburban areas. Hobbs' potential selection of a Republican running mate such as former Mesa Mayor John Giles is viewed as a factor that could broaden crossover appeal, while Biggs' choice of Sine Kerr and Trump endorsement align with base mobilization strategies. Limited shifts in polling since the primary, combined with Arizona's history of single-digit gubernatorial margins, sustain expectations for a competitive outcome through November, with any late-cycle economic indicators, debate performances, or national political developments likely to influence final spreads.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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