Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's strong fundraising—over $1.1 million raised with $712,000 cash on hand—and the district's deep Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+39, Kamala Harris won 84.5% in 2024) underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for the CA-12 House seat. California's top-two primary on June 2 will likely advance Simon over challenger Jamie Joyce (D), with no active Republican after Heath Fulkerson's withdrawal, ensuring a Democrat in the November general. Recent Simon announcements securing $142 million in federal East Bay funding bolster her position amid Joyce's calls for party overhaul. A GOP upset would require an unforeseen primary qualifier and national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$33,778 交易量
$33,778 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$33,778 交易量
$33,778 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$20,165 交易量
94%
共和党
$13,612 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's strong fundraising—over $1.1 million raised with $712,000 cash on hand—and the district's deep Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+39, Kamala Harris won 84.5% in 2024) underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for the CA-12 House seat. California's top-two primary on June 2 will likely advance Simon over challenger Jamie Joyce (D), with no active Republican after Heath Fulkerson's withdrawal, ensuring a Democrat in the November general. Recent Simon announcements securing $142 million in federal East Bay funding bolster her position amid Joyce's calls for party overhaul. A GOP upset would require an unforeseen primary qualifier and national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$33,778结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's strong fundraising—over $1.1 million raised with $712,000 cash on hand—and the district's deep Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+39, Kamala Harris won 84.5% in 2024) underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for the CA-12 House seat. California's top-two primary on June 2 will likely advance Simon over challenger Jamie Joyce (D), with no active Republican after Heath Fulkerson's withdrawal, ensuring a Democrat in the November general. Recent Simon announcements securing $142 million in federal East Bay funding bolster her position amid Joyce's calls for party overhaul. A GOP upset would require an unforeseen primary qualifier and national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$33,778结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's strong fundraising—over $1.1 million raised with $712,000 cash on hand—and the district's deep Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+39, Kamala Harris won 84.5% in 2024) underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for the CA-12 House seat. California's top-two primary on June 2 will likely advance Simon over challenger Jamie Joyce (D), with no active Republican after Heath Fulkerson's withdrawal, ensuring a Democrat in the November general. Recent Simon announcements securing $142 million in federal East Bay funding bolster her position amid Joyce's calls for party overhaul. A GOP upset would require an unforeseen primary qualifier and national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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