Recent meteorological forecasts from agencies like Météo-France highlight a dominant high-pressure ridge and southerly warm-air advection over western Europe, driving ensemble model consensus toward a daytime maximum near 39°C in Paris on August 14. Persistent soil-moisture deficits from the ongoing heat wave further amplify surface heating, with tight clustering in numerical weather prediction runs supporting the market's near-certain implied probability for exactly 39°C as the official high. Historical August baselines around 25–28°C underscore the anomaly, though resolution hinges on standardized observations at Paris-Montsouris. Minor shifts in cloud cover, localized convection, or slight model adjustments could still allow 38°C or 40°C outcomes if boundary-layer mixing evolves differently than projected.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月14日巴黎气温最高？
8月14日巴黎气温最高？
39°C 100.0%
35°C or below <1%
36°C <1%
37°C <1%
$105,536 交易量
$105,536 交易量
2026-08-14
35°C or below
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
Yes
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C or higher
No
39°C 100.0%
35°C or below <1%
36°C <1%
37°C <1%
$105,536 交易量
$105,536 交易量
2026-08-14
35°C or below
$4,507 交易量
No
36°C
$3,421 交易量
No
37°C
$14,256 交易量
No
38°C
$29,413 交易量
No
39°C
$19,653 交易量
Yes
40°C
$15,362 交易量
No
41°C
$7,464 交易量
No
42°C
$3,929 交易量
No
43°C
$3,060 交易量
No
44°C
$4,023 交易量
No
45°C or higher
$447 交易量
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological forecasts from agencies like Météo-France highlight a dominant high-pressure ridge and southerly warm-air advection over western Europe, driving ensemble model consensus toward a daytime maximum near 39°C in Paris on August 14. Persistent soil-moisture deficits from the ongoing heat wave further amplify surface heating, with tight clustering in numerical weather prediction runs supporting the market's near-certain implied probability for exactly 39°C as the official high. Historical August baselines around 25–28°C underscore the anomaly, though resolution hinges on standardized observations at Paris-Montsouris. Minor shifts in cloud cover, localized convection, or slight model adjustments could still allow 38°C or 40°C outcomes if boundary-layer mixing evolves differently than projected.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
交易量
$105,536结束日期
2026-08-14市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological forecasts from agencies like Météo-France highlight a dominant high-pressure ridge and southerly warm-air advection over western Europe, driving ensemble model consensus toward a daytime maximum near 39°C in Paris on August 14. Persistent soil-moisture deficits from the ongoing heat wave further amplify surface heating, with tight clustering in numerical weather prediction runs supporting the market's near-certain implied probability for exactly 39°C as the official high. Historical August baselines around 25–28°C underscore the anomaly, though resolution hinges on standardized observations at Paris-Montsouris. Minor shifts in cloud cover, localized convection, or slight model adjustments could still allow 38°C or 40°C outcomes if boundary-layer mixing evolves differently than projected.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$105,536结束日期
2026-08-14市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Recent meteorological forecasts from agencies like Météo-France highlight a dominant high-pressure ridge and southerly warm-air advection over western Europe, driving ensemble model consensus toward a daytime maximum near 39°C in Paris on August 14. Persistent soil-moisture deficits from the ongoing heat wave further amplify surface heating, with tight clustering in numerical weather prediction runs supporting the market's near-certain implied probability for exactly 39°C as the official high. Historical August baselines around 25–28°C underscore the anomaly, though resolution hinges on standardized observations at Paris-Montsouris. Minor shifts in cloud cover, localized convection, or slight model adjustments could still allow 38°C or 40°C outcomes if boundary-layer mixing evolves differently than projected.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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