Recent Japan Meteorological Agency observations for Tokyo on August 16 confirm a daily maximum of 26°C amid persistent cloud cover and scattered showers, aligning with the market's 100% implied probability for that exact threshold. Stable atmospheric patterns, including regional moisture and limited solar heating, suppressed daytime warming below typical mid-August climatological normals near 31°C. Trader consensus reflects real-time surface data and short-range model agreement, with urban heat island effects insufficient to push readings higher under these conditions. Only an unexpected late-day clearing or measurement revision by official stations could realistically alter the outcome before final verification.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月16日东京气温最高？
8月16日东京气温最高？
26°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
27°C <1%
$82,325 交易量
$82,325 交易量
2026-08-16
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
27°C <1%
$82,325 交易量
$82,325 交易量
2026-08-16
24°C or below
$1,524 交易量
No
25°C
$4,459 交易量
No
26°C
$21,861 交易量
Yes
27°C
$13,342 交易量
No
28°C
$10,598 交易量
No
29°C
$6,475 交易量
No
30°C
$7,999 交易量
No
31°C
$3,773 交易量
No
32°C
$5,147 交易量
No
33°C
$4,627 交易量
No
34°C or higher
$2,520 交易量
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency observations for Tokyo on August 16 confirm a daily maximum of 26°C amid persistent cloud cover and scattered showers, aligning with the market's 100% implied probability for that exact threshold. Stable atmospheric patterns, including regional moisture and limited solar heating, suppressed daytime warming below typical mid-August climatological normals near 31°C. Trader consensus reflects real-time surface data and short-range model agreement, with urban heat island effects insufficient to push readings higher under these conditions. Only an unexpected late-day clearing or measurement revision by official stations could realistically alter the outcome before final verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$82,325结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency observations for Tokyo on August 16 confirm a daily maximum of 26°C amid persistent cloud cover and scattered showers, aligning with the market's 100% implied probability for that exact threshold. Stable atmospheric patterns, including regional moisture and limited solar heating, suppressed daytime warming below typical mid-August climatological normals near 31°C. Trader consensus reflects real-time surface data and short-range model agreement, with urban heat island effects insufficient to push readings higher under these conditions. Only an unexpected late-day clearing or measurement revision by official stations could realistically alter the outcome before final verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$82,325结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Recent Japan Meteorological Agency observations for Tokyo on August 16 confirm a daily maximum of 26°C amid persistent cloud cover and scattered showers, aligning with the market's 100% implied probability for that exact threshold. Stable atmospheric patterns, including regional moisture and limited solar heating, suppressed daytime warming below typical mid-August climatological normals near 31°C. Trader consensus reflects real-time surface data and short-range model agreement, with urban heat island effects insufficient to push readings higher under these conditions. Only an unexpected late-day clearing or measurement revision by official stations could realistically alter the outcome before final verification.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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