Recent ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Warsaw’s June 17 maximum near the long-term seasonal mean of ~22 °C, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 21–23 °C. Subtle differences among runs arise mainly from the precise timing and coverage of a weak Atlantic front expected to arrive that afternoon, which could shave 1–2 °C from peak values under thicker cloud or add a degree under clearer skies. Low-level flow remains light and variable, limiting orographic or urban-heat-island amplification, while soil moisture from recent rains keeps daytime heating modest. With resolution only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest 12–18 UTC model cycles most heavily, leaving the three central outcomes nearly even as small forecast shifts can still move the observed high across the 21–23 °C thresholds.